NARROW DEFINITION: implies that a relatively limited number of
animals will be tested/investigated; all tested animals have a high
probability to be infected; Low number of negative test; Reduced costs;
BUT reduced probability to (early) detect the infection
11
DETECTION OF ASF IN WILD BOAR
USING TWO DIFFERENT SUSPECT CASE DEFINITIONS
A) All individuals found dead => broad suspect case definition
B) All individuals shot showing clinical sign of the diseases => narrow suspect case
definition
Expected number of cases?
(...) Low risk areas => narrow case definition (possibly undetected positive cases)
High risk areas => broad case definition (many negative animals investigated but
high probability to early detect the virus)
PASSIVE SURVEILLANCE: CRITICAL POINTS II
Communication chain: passive surveillance is based on reporting, hence a
person willing to report must know to whom to report and how (green lines,
mobile of a responsible person, avoid reporting to “Veterinary Service”)
To whom it should be reported the finding of a dead wild boar in the
forest?
(...) ASF SURVEILLANCE IN WILD BOAR
FIELD EXAMPLE
Aim:
a) Early detection
b) evolution of the infection
20
11
SUSPECT CASE DEFINITION AND ASF DETECTION
BROADER CASE DEFINITION: ALL FOUND DEAD ANIMALS:
N. 227 178 DETECTED CASES (78,4%)
49 NEGATIVE INVESTIGATIONS
FIRST CASE DETECTED 25/07/2014
NARROW CASE DEFINITION: ANIMALS SHOT WHILE
SHOWING CLINICAL SIGNS: N. 1 1 DETECTED CASE (100%)
NO NEGATIVE INVESTIGATIONS
LOST 178 CASES
CASE DETECTED 20/08/2014
21
22
LATVIA: Summary of wild boar data (June-December, 2014) within the infected areas (Part II and Part III)
Number of tested animals
Number of positive results
WB found dead 227 178
WB hunted 2733 39
Early detection of ASF in wild boars
Passive surveillance vs. active surveillance
12
Wild boar
population
size
Passive
surveillance:
day of first
detection (Ag detection)
Passive
surveillance:
last
detection
day (Ag detection)
Passive
surveillance:
average
detection
period
(days)
Active
surveillance:
day of first
detection (Ag detection)
Active
surveillance:
last day
detection
(Ag detection)
Active
surveillance:
average
detection
Period
(days)
100
30
335
60,7
Never
-
-
400
8
335
14,6
167
-
-
1000
4
363
5,7
53
226
91
3000
1
364
1,9
17
347
33,1
From a simulation model
EFFICENCY OF PASSIVE VS ACTIVE
SURVEILLANCE: FIELD DATA
VIRUS DETECTION IN DEAD ANIMALS: 178/227 = 0,78
VIRUS DETECTION IN SHOT ANIMALS: 39/2733 = 0,014
DETECTION IN DEAD/DETECTION IN SHOT
0,78/0,014 = 55,7
THE PROBABILITY TO DETECTED A VIRUS IN DEAD ANIMALS IS 55
TIMES HIGHER THAN IN SHOT ANIMALS
(55/(55+1)*100 = 98%
98 OUT OF 100 VIRUSES ARE LIKELY TO BE DETECTED IN DEAD
WILD BOARS 24
13
FOUND DEAD ANIMALS = 78%
SHOT ANIMALS = 1,4%
ASF prevalence estimation
Which is the true period prevalence?
Language:English
Score: 1606221.7
-
https://www.fao.org/fileadmin/...events2017/ASF_Kaunas/8_en.pdf
Data Source: un
Finding dead wild boar carcasses ($$$$);
6. Sampling dead wild boar carcass and documentation ($$)
6. (...) Mandatory notification of wild boar found dead;
3. Finding dead wild boar ($$$$);
4. Sampling dead wild boar carcass and documentation ($$)
6. (...) Mandatory notification of wild boar found dead;
3. Finding dead wild boar ($$);
4. Sampling dead wild boar carcass ($) and documentation ($)
5.
Language:English
Score: 1577522.9
-
https://www.fao.org/fileadmin/...s/events2019/ASFBalkans/19.pdf
Data Source: un
Promoting safer poultry disposal in Egypt: Better for business and better for public health | FAO | Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations;
FAO.org
中文
english
français
Español
抵御能力
背景
工作领域
区域方法
Global Network
新闻与活动
多媒体
资源
News
From the field
Highlights
Promoting safer poultry disposal in Egypt: Better for business and better for public health
Tags : EGYPT , NORTHERN AFRICA , ECTAD , POULTRY , ANIMAL DISEASE , ANIMAL DISEASE , LIVESTOCK , RESOURCE PARTNERS , UNITED STATES ,
07/02/2022
An experimental initiative to reduce hazardous dumping of poultry in Egypt aims to show farmers the business advantages of disposing safely of dead birds.
(...) Do they advise farmers on proper methods of dead bird disposal? Do farmers eventually properly dispose of their dead birds?
(...) Second, there will be a reduction in microbial threats from animals, as fewer dead birds are thrown into the Nile River and its canals.
Language:English
Score: 1553506.8
-
https://www.fao.org/resilience...ws-events/detail/zh/c/1471338/
Data Source: un
Promoting safer poultry disposal in Egypt: Better for business and better for public health | FAO | Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations;
FAO.org
english
français
Español
Resilience
Background
Areas of work
Regional approach
Global Network
News & Events
Multimedia
Resources
News
From the field
Highlights
Promoting safer poultry disposal in Egypt: Better for business and better for public health
Tags : EGYPT , NORTHERN AFRICA , ECTAD , POULTRY , ANIMAL DISEASE , ANIMAL DISEASE , LIVESTOCK , RESOURCE PARTNERS , UNITED STATES ,
07/02/2022
An experimental initiative to reduce hazardous dumping of poultry in Egypt aims to show farmers the business advantages of disposing safely of dead birds.
(...) Do they advise farmers on proper methods of dead bird disposal? Do farmers eventually properly dispose of their dead birds?
(...) Second, there will be a reduction in microbial threats from animals, as fewer dead birds are thrown into the Nile River and its canals.
Language:English
Score: 1543009.2
-
https://www.fao.org/resilience...ws-events/detail/en/c/1471338/
Data Source: un
2
I Risk assessment
II Early detection
III Control
& eradication
Risk Assessment Germany
• Assessment for import risk through
– Legal import of pigs and products
– Contaminated vehicles and clothes
– Wild boar
• Qualitative not quantitative – Negligible / low / medium /
likely / high
• With confidence level – Low, medium, high
Carola Sauter-Louis
3
Risk areas: „urban “ WB; high WB density; resting areas on highways, etc…
Introduction/release
Contact/ primary infection
Secondary infection/perpetuation
Endemicity/spread
Risk assessment on local level (district)
FMD
Prevalence: 100%
Mortality: 2%
Lethality: 2%
Contagiousity: +++
CSF
P: 50%
M: 25%
L: 50%
Contagiousity: ++
ASF
P: 10%
M: 9%
L: 90%
Contagiousity: +
100 infected; 2 dead
50 infected; 25 dead10 infected; 9 dead
Infected dead
ASF - CSF - FMD
4
Farm mortality/morbidity
threshold
High Risk Period (HRP)
Low contagiousity => low (initial) mortality ASF remains undetected in large pig farms (below the normal mortality
threshold)
FMD CSF ASF
Time
HRP -> farm size • back yard: rather short
• large farm: rather long
Surveillance can be:
• to prove freedom of disease • to detect new cases • to determine the prevalence • to monitor the evolution of the disease • to calm down trade partners and neighbours • to show activity….
Surveillance
5
Surveillance can be based:
…on books and legislation,
telling you how many animals
you have to test/examine in
the case of a particular
disease during a particular
period of time
…on knowledge about
• Biology of the disease
• Laboratory diagnosis
• Epidemiology
• Socio-economical factors
• Human resources
• Political constrains
Never perfect compromise
Surveillance
Surveillance:
• on farm level (backyard commercial) • in the village (epidemiological unit???) (...) (Prevalence of 2% -> 78 WB have to
be sampled (1% … 96 WB…)
5/95-Concept
Targeted diagnosis,
> 4 weeks (PCR +)
1 2 3 4
5 of 100 infected (5%)
100 WB
7
Early detection of ASF in wild boar
Passive surveillance vs. active surveillance
Passive / Active: 72.24 / 1.45 = 49,82
The probability to detect an ASF positive animal is
50 times higher in dead animals than in hunted animals
81 out of 100 positive cases are likely to be detected in dead wild boar (177 / 217 x 100 = 81)
tested positive %
positive Passive (found dead) 245 177 72.24
Active (hunted) 2765 40 1.45
217
Increased mortality
threshold
SANTE/7113/2015 – Rev 6; WORKIMG DOCUMENT ASF Strategy for Eastern Part of the EU
8
ASF outbreaks in Latvia in 2014
28 primary
4 secondary
16 swill
12 WB
4 humans
32
31 passiv
1 activ
20 dead
12 sick
32
Field observations (Oļševskis et al., 2015)
12 %
69 / 585 = 0,12 (12%)
Experimental studies (Pietschmann et al., 2015)
8 %
2 / 24 = 0,08 (8%)
Language:English
Score: 1539040
-
https://www.fao.org/fileadmin/...ts/events2019/ASFBalkans/7.pdf
Data Source: un
Virological surveillance (PCR, Ag) Serosurveillance (Ab)
Testing dead wild boar The forestry inspectors in case of damaged and dead wild boars inform the regional veterinary service which takes the samples and sends to the FSVI for laboratory diagnositcs. (...) Wild boar surveillance Testing dead wild boar The forestry inspectors in case of damaged and dead wild boars inform the regional veterinary service which takes the samples and sends to the FSVI for laboratory diagnositcs. (...) Testing hunted wild boar Not applied(Memor antium)
Testing dead wild boar in traffic incidents The wild boars grow up far away from the inhabited people areas.
Language:English
Score: 1533030
-
https://www.fao.org/fileadmin/...ts/events2019/ASFBalkans/8.pdf
Data Source: un
Promoting safer poultry disposal in Egypt: Better for business and better for public health | FAO | Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations;
FAO.org
english
français
Español
La résilience
Contexte
Domaines de travail
Approche régionale
Réseau mondial
Actualités et événements
Multimédia
Ressources
Actualités
Du terrain
Points saillants
Promoting safer poultry disposal in Egypt: Better for business and better for public health
Tags : EGYPT , NORTHERN AFRICA , ECTAD , POULTRY , ANIMAL DISEASE , ANIMAL DISEASE , LIVESTOCK , RESOURCE PARTNERS , UNITED STATES ,
07/02/2022
An experimental initiative to reduce hazardous dumping of poultry in Egypt aims to show farmers the business advantages of disposing safely of dead birds.
(...) Do they advise farmers on proper methods of dead bird disposal? Do farmers eventually properly dispose of their dead birds?
(...) Second, there will be a reduction in microbial threats from animals, as fewer dead birds are thrown into the Nile River and its canals.
Language:English
Score: 1532657
-
https://www.fao.org/resilience.../histoire-detail/fr/c/1471338/
Data Source: un
Promoting safer poultry disposal in Egypt: Better for business and better for public health | FAO | Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations;
FAO.org
english
français
Español
La resiliencia
Contexto
Áreas de trabajo
Enfoque regional
Red mundial
Noticias y eventos
Multimedia
Recursos
Noticias
Desde el campo
Destacados
Promoting safer poultry disposal in Egypt: Better for business and better for public health
Tags : EGYPT , NORTHERN AFRICA , ECTAD , POULTRY , ANIMAL DISEASE , ANIMAL DISEASE , LIVESTOCK , RESOURCE PARTNERS , UNITED STATES ,
07/02/2022
An experimental initiative to reduce hazardous dumping of poultry in Egypt aims to show farmers the business advantages of disposing safely of dead birds.
(...) Do they advise farmers on proper methods of dead bird disposal? Do farmers eventually properly dispose of their dead birds?
(...) Second, there will be a reduction in microbial threats from animals, as fewer dead birds are thrown into the Nile River and its canals.
Language:English
Score: 1532657
-
https://www.fao.org/resilience...historia-detalle/es/c/1471338/
Data Source: un
While existing waste management and agricultural laws prohibit dumping hazardous waste into waterbodies, including animal carcasses, they are poorly enforced.
The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)’s Africa Sustainable Livestock 2050 (ASL2050) initiative, supported by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), has facilitated a year-long participatory process in the two governorates of Menouifa and Qalyubia – two of the country’s major poultry areas – to identify actionable options to enhance proper disposal of dead birds, and ensure compliance with the existing legislative framework. (...) Do they advise farmers on proper methods of dead bird disposal? Do farmers eventually properly dispose of their dead birds?
(...) Second, there will be a reduction in microbial threats from animals, as fewer dead birds are thrown into the Nile River and its canals.
Language:English
Score: 1516437.1
-
https://www.fao.org/emergencie...r-poultry-disposal-in-egypt/en
Data Source: un
No specific prescriptions on which animals have to be sampled are in place,
however sick or dead animals should be targeted.
Along the two ASF samples, it is recommended that at least 10% of dead animals
should be sampled.
CF are reporting daily by phone to the local veterinary service the number of
death and sick animals. (...) Surveillance in domestic pigs should be focused on ASF
early detection and thus considering sick/dead animals avoiding planning in
advance the number of animals to be tested.
Language:English
Score: 1511833
-
https://www.fao.org/fileadmin/...s/events2019/ASFBalkans/17.pdf
Data Source: un
