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According to ICAO’s preliminary compilation of annual global statistics, the total number of passengers carried on scheduled services declined to 1.8 billion in 2020, which is 60.1 per cent lower than the previous year, with the number of departures declining to 20.3 million in 2020, a 47.1 per cent decline. (...) Passenger traffic (total scheduled revenue passenger-kilometres performed (RPKs))
Total decline: 65.5 per cent, equating to 2 990 billion RPKs
Change by region: Europe: 23.5 per cent of world traffic, posting decline of 69.6 per cent Africa: 2.0 per cent of world traffic, posting decline of 68.1 per cent Middle East: 8.6 per cent of world traffic, posting decline of 67.7 per cent Asia and Pacific: 38.0 per cent of world traffic, posting decline of 62.2 per cent North America: 22.5 per cent of world traffic, posting decline of 65.2 per cent Latin America and Caribbean: 5.4 per cent of world traffic, posting decline of 62.9 per cent
More comprehensive air transport data are available at: https://data.icao.int/newdataplus
International scheduled passenger traffic
Total decline: 75.4 per cent in RPKs
Change by region: Europe: 39.4 per cent of total RPK, posting decline of 73.9 per cent Africa: 3.5 per cent of total RPK, posting decline of 69.5 per cent Middle East: 16.9 per cent of total RPK, posting decline of 70.0 per cent Asia and Pacific: 23.5 per cent of total RPK, posting decline of 80.7 per cent North America: 12.1 per cent of total RPK, posting decline of 75.3 per cent Latin America and Caribbean: 4.6 per cent of total RPK, posting decline of 72.8 per cent
Domestic scheduled passenger traffic
Total decline: 48.7 per cent in RPKs
Change by region: Europe: 10.4 per cent of total RPK, posting decline of 39.1 per cent Africa: 0.7 per cent of total RPK, posting decline of 61.5 per cent Middle East: 1.8 per cent of total RPK, posting decline of 21.0 per cent Asia and Pacific: 49.9 per cent of total RPK, posting decline of 40.0 per cent North America: 31.0 per cent of total RPK, posting decline of 60.0 per cent Latin America and Caribbean: 6.1 per cent of total RPK, posting decline of 52.4 per cent
Low-cost Carriers
Low-cost carriers carried an estimated 539 million passengers in 2020, which was approximately 30 per cent of the world total scheduled passengers. This indicated a 60.9 per cent decline when compared to the number of passengers carried by low-cost carriers in 2019.
Language:English
Score: 679424.76
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https://www.icao.int/annual-re...-of-air-transport-in-2020.aspx
Data Source: un
Argentina’s demographic transition was unusual in that mortality decline occurred more or less simultaneously with fertility decline. (...) While interventions in some states may accelerate this decline, the declines are on balance probably better regarded as having a momentum of their own. (...) ON THE PROSPECTS FOR ENDLESS FERTILITY DECLINE IN SOUTH ASIA Alaka Malwade Basu
Global fertility decline, meaning the decline of fertility in most or all countries of the world, should not be confused with global fertility convergence, meaning the decline of fertility to a common level in most or all countries.
Language:English
Score: 676639.9
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https://www.un.org/en/developm...rt/4/summary-countrypapers.pdf
Data Source: un
Workshop on Prospects for Fertility Decline in High Fertility Countries
Workshop on Prospects for Fertility Decline in High Fertility Countries
Objectives
The past four decades have witnessed tremendous changes in fertility levels in developing countries. Many countries have recorded dramatic declines in total fertility rates and in many others fertility has started to decline. (...) Researchers from 14 different countries will meet to investigate the conditions that hinder or facilitate fertility decline, to provide insights into the prospects for decline and to indicate policy measures that may facilitate the onset of fertility decline.
Language:English
Score: 673767
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https://www.un.org/en/developm...ts/pdf/expert/3/objectives.pdf
Data Source: un
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Expert Group Meeting on Policy Responses to Population Ageing and Population Decline
16-18 October 2000
Documents
Objectives of the Meeting
Organization of Work
List of Participants
List of Papers
Background Papers
Replacement Migration: Is It a Solution to Declining and Ageing Populations?
Population Decline and Population Ageing: Government Views and Policies Population Division
Contributed Papers
The inversion of the age pyramid and the future population decline in France: Implications and policy responses Jean-Claude Chesnais
Policy responses to population ageing and population decline in France Georges Tapinos
Demographic ageing and population decline in 21st century Germany - consequences for the systems of social insurance ( Text , Figures ) Herwig Birg
Policy responses to population ageing and population decline in Germany Charlotte Hoehn
Possible policy responses to population ageing and population decline. (...) Looking for solutions to the demographic question Maria Rita Testa
The coming of a hyper-aged and depopulating society and population policies: the case of Japan Makoto Atoh
The impact of population decline and population aging in Japan from the perspectives of social and labor policy Yukiko Katsumata
Policy responses to population ageing and population decline in Korea Namhoon Cho
Policy responses to low fertility and population aging in Korea Ik Ki Kim
Population decline and population ageing in the Russian Federation Svetlana Nikitina
Replacement migration: is it a solution for Russian?
Language:English
Score: 672403
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https://www.un.org/en/developm...vents/expert-group/2/index.asp
Data Source: un
UN/POP/PRA/2000/INF
UN/POP/PRA/2000/INF.3 22 September 2000
ENGLISH ONLY
EXPERT GROUP MEETING ON POLICY RESPONSES TO POPULATION AGEING AND POPULATION DECLINE Population Division Department of Economic and Social Affairs United Nations Secretariat New York 16-18 October 2000
PROVISIONAL LIST OF DOCUMENTS
Symbol Title/Author
UN/POP/PRA/2000/1 REPLACEMENT MIGRATION: IS IT A SOLUTION TO DECLINING AND AGEING POPULATIONS? (United Nations Population Division)
UN/POP/PRA/2000/2 POPULATION AGEING AND POPULATION DECLINE: GOVERNMENT VIEWS AND POLICIES (Anatoly Zoubanov - United Nations Population Division)
UN/POP/PRA/2000/3 THE INVERSION OF THE AGE PYRAMID AND THE FUTURE POULATION DECLINE IN FRANCE: IMPLICATIONS AND POLICY RESPONSES (Jean-Claude Chesnais)
UN/POP/PRA/2000/4 POLICY RESPONSES TO POPULATION AGEING AND POPULATION DECLINE IN FRANCE (Georges Tapinos)
UN/POP/PRA/2000/5 DEMOGRAPHIC AGEING AND POPULATION DECLINE IN 21ST CENTURY GERMANY – CONSEQUENCES FOR THE SYSTEMS OF SOCIAL INSURANCE (Herwig Birg)
UN/POP/PRA/2000/6 POLICY RESPONSES TO POPULATION AGEING AND POPULATION DECLINE IN GERMANY (Charlotte Hoehn)
UN/POP/PRA/2000/7 POSSIBLE POLICY RESPONSES TO POPULATION AGEING AND POPULATION DECLINE: THE CASE OF ITALY (Antonio Golini)
UN/POP/PRA/2000/8 FEWER AND OLDER ITALIANS, MORE PROBLEMS? LOOKING FOR SOLUTIONS TO THE DEMOGRAPHIC QUESTION (Maria Rita Testa)
UN/POP/PRA/2000/9 THE COMING OF A HYPER-AGED AND DEPOPULATING SOCIETY AND POPULATION POLICIES – THE CASE OF JAPAN (Makoto Atoh)
UN/POP/PRA/2000/INF.3
UN/POP/PRA/2000/10 THE IMPACT OF POPULATION DECLINE AND POPULATION AGING IN JAPAN FROM THE PERSPECTIVES OF SOCIAL AND LABOR POLICY (Yukiko Katsumata)
UN/POP/PRA/2000/11 POLICY RESPONSES TO POPULATION AGEING AND POPULATION DECLINE IN KOREA (Namhoon Cho)
UN/POP/PRA/2000/12 POLICY RESPONSES TO LOW FERTILITY AND POPULATION AGING IN KOREA (Ik Ki Kim)
UN/POP/PRA/2000/13 POPULATION DECLINE AND POPULATION AGEING IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION (Svetlana V.
Language:English
Score: 669242.2
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https://www.un.org/en/developm.../pdf/expert/2/listofpapers.pdf
Data Source: un
Adolescent and Youth Survey of Pakistan
Prospects of Fertility Decline in Pakistan
© [2009] The Population Council, Inc.
(...) Sources: PIHS and PSLMS 1991 – 2006
21
Pakistanis More Educated but Women Lag Behind
Population age Education Pyramid (10+)
Sources: PDHS 1991 & PDHS 2007, NIPS
22
Women More Engaged in Productive Work but still Very Low Participation
Source: Pakistan Labour
Force Surveys 1991‐
2008
23
Looking Ahead
24
Decline in Fertility Greater in Non‐Poor Households
Source: PSLM 2005‐06
25
Fertility Trends‐
Past and Future
Current decline shows TFR reaching 3.4 in 2015 and 2.6 in 2030 Proposed decline shows TFR reaching 3.0 in 2015 and 2.2 in 2030
26
Fertility Decline Scenarios
27
Prospects for Growth
28
Projected Population Size
29
Conclusions
Dispute about fertility levels now narrowing to slimmer differences
Marriage changes major explanation for fertility decline through out
Some tempo effects may explain fertility decline in the absence of contraceptive use change
Economic conditions likely to intensify desires for lesser children, and to increase unwanted fertility
Further fertility decline is largely contingent on active policy to promote family planning services
30
Thanks!
Prospects of Fertility Decline in Pakistan
Fertility in Pakistan – the Twists and the Turns
Fertility Decline – 1985-2007
Urban Rural TFRs 1970-2007
Differentials in TFR by Education and Income (2007)
The Proximate Determinants – Which one is more Important?
Language:English
Score: 668537.26
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https://www.un.org/en/developm...nts/pdf/expert/15.5/Sathar.pdf
Data Source: un
THE EFFECT OF FERTILITY DECLINE ON REDUCING MATERNAL DEATHS
THE CORE FOUR 1 2 3 4
Family planning with related reproductive health services
Skilled care during pregnancy and childbirth
Emergency obstetric care
Immediate postnatal care
What have been the separate contributions of declines in the:
– fertility rate – the maternal mortality ratio
to reducing the number of maternal deaths over the past 15 years and what are the variations by major region?
(...) •The MMR – the risk of dying once pregnant - has declined by 34% as maternal health services have improved. Without this decline, the numbers of maternal deaths would have been about 1.5 million higher.
Language:English
Score: 666556.5
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https://www.un.org/en/developm...pert/16/blanc-presentation.pdf
Data Source: un
Measuring Mortality in Times of Civil Unrest: The 2010 Afghan Mortality Study
Further Reductions in Infant and
Child Mortality: Opportunities and
Challenges
Kenneth Hill Harvard Center for Population and Development Studies
Li Liu Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health Presentation prepared for United Nations Expert Group Meeting on “Priorities for Improved Survival: ICPD Beyond 2014” , New York, NY, 21-22 October 2013
Average Annual Rates of Change 1990 to 2012
• Key Points: ▫ Acceleration of decline:
Generally faster post-2000 than pre-2000 Globally, U5MR declined by 1.7% pa 1990-2000, 3.8% pa
2000-2012 ▫ Variation by age range:
Generally fastest for 4q1, slowest for neonatal Globally, 4q1 declined by 5.1% pa, NNMR by only 2.8% pa,
between 2000 and 2012 ▫ Variation by region:
Rate of decline of U5MR in MDR’s (3.8%pa) much faster than that in LDR’s (1.8%) between 1990 and 2000
Differential disappeared between 2000 and 2012 (MDR’s 3.9%, LDR’s 3.8%)
Sub-Saharan Africa had very slow progress between 1990 and 2000 (1.3%) but average progress 2000 to 2012 (3.9%)
Cause-Specific Mortality Under Age 5 in 2010
• Liu et al. analysis uses 2 age ranges, 0 and 1-59 months • Neonatal period is dominated by pregnancy-related factors
▫ Preterm and intrapartum complications represent between 50% and 62% of all NN deaths in all regions
▫ Infections (sepsis/meningitis, pneumonia) account for between 10% and 30%, closely correlated with U5MR level
• Much more variability in causes after first month: ▫ Major infectious diseases (pneumonia, diarrhoea, malaria,
meningitis, AIDS, measles) account for nearly 70% in SSA, 30% or less in Europe, Latin America
▫ Injuries range from 5% (Africa) to 30% (Americas) • Declines of rates from 2000 fastest for infectious diseases
▫ Neonatal tetanus in neonatal period, measles ages 1 to 59 months ▫ Below average declines for malaria and injuries (in some regions
increasing rates) ages 1 to 59 months
Opportunities and Challenges for
Future Decline in Child Mortality 1 • Structural/clinical changes likely to continue
▫ Opportunities: Increasing urbanization Increasing maternal education Further fertility decline Continued economic growth and poverty reduction
▫ Challenges: Near elimination of several vaccine-preventable diseases Continued concentration of births in neonatal period Continued concentration of births in sub-Saharan Africa
(for global progress) Weak implementation of cost-effective case management Rise of injury mortality
Opportunities and Challenges for
Future Decline in Child Mortality 2 • Changes that may or may not occur
▫ Opportunities:
Development of new vaccines (malaria, diarrhoea)
Improved delivery care
▫ Challenges:
Disease burden implications of global warming (malaria, nutrition)
Increasing microbial resistance
New or evolving infectious diseases (influenza)
Urbanization
• The proportion of births in urban areas will increase in the future ▫ Product of two countervailing trends, increasing
population proportion and lower fertility ▫ In 4 example countries, proportions of births in urban
areas increased by between 3 and 10 percentage points from early 1990s to late 2000s
• Under-5 mortality in rural areas of developing countries is on average approximately 60% higher than that in large urban areas ▫ Partly effect of SES factors, partly health service access ▫ Large urban slums do not have excessive child
mortality
Maternal Education
• Extensive evidence that mother’s education has a major impact on survival of her children
• Cohorts experiencing rapid increases in female education over last two decades now reaching peak childbearing ages
• Impact muted by lower fertility, and delayed by later fertility, among better educated, but effects substantial ▫ In 4 example countries, proportions of births to women
with secondary education increased by from 5 and 30 percentage points from early 1990s to late 2000s
• Continuing rapid increases in female education, particularly in settings with currently low levels, will ensure that this trend continues
Fertility Change
• Well-established excess child mortality risk among births ▫ To very young or older (35+) mothers ▫ Following short birth intervals ▫ First birth or high parity (e.g. 4+)
• Except in sub-Saharan Africa, fertility change has largely run its course, and potential for further favourable changes is small
• In 4 example countries, only consistent changes from early 1990s to late 2000s have been: ▫ Rising proportions of first births ▫ Declining proportions of high parity births ▫ Reduction in proportions of births after short intervals has
been small, 3 to 5 percentage points
Economic Growth/Poverty Reduction
• Despite strong cross-sectional correlations, short-run effect of economic change on U5MR has not been consistently large
• Economic growth is likely to contribute to: ▫ Increased access to health services/facilities ▫ Improved water and sanitation conditions at household
level • Poverty reduction is likely to reduce under-nutrition
▫ Under-nutrition contributes to nearly 50% of under-5 deaths
▫ Chronic malnutrition of children 24 to 35 months has generally been declining – e.g. % stunted among children in interviewed households in Malawi declined from 66% in 2000 DHS to 56% 2010 DHS
▫ But is still unacceptably high in many settings, e.g. Malawi
Declines of Vaccine-Preventable Diseases
• Immunization programs with well-established vaccines in developing regions have been hugely successful
▫ Dramatic declines in mortality from e.g. measles and neonatal tetanus
▫ No scope for further major declines
• Utilization and effectiveness of “new” vaccines has been less dramatic
▫ “Low-hanging fruit” has been picked
Increasing Concentration of Deaths in
Neonatal Period • Under-5 mortality declines have been slowest in
neonatal period ▫ Leading to increasing proportion neonatal of infant
deaths as IMR or U5MR decline ▫ Although this pattern is the historical norm, the
proportion neonatal of infant deaths is already high by historic standards
• Neonatal deaths are largely the result of preterm or intrapartum complications ▫ Effective interventions will require increased
proportions of facility deliveries with high-quality care ▫ Likely to be relatively expensive
Proportion Neonatal of Infant Deaths by IMR:
Historic Patterns and Matlab, Bangladesh
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
P ro
p o rt
io n N
e o n
a ta
l o f In
fa n
t D
e a th
s
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 Infant Mortality Rate
England and Wales Sweden
Matlab
Concentration of Births in High-
Mortality Regions
• Differential fertility declines by region will concentrate births in high mortality regions ▫ UN WPP (2013) projects that the share of global
under-5 population from 2010 to 2035: Will increase in sub-Saharan Africa from 22% to 31% Will decline in other less-developed regions Will decline only marginally in more developed
regions
• These shifts will not affect potential achievement of country targets (unless reflected sub- nationally), but will affect global performance
Failure to Implement Cost-Effective
Interventions • While preventive interventions (notably vaccines,
bednets) have been widely implemented, effective case management has lagged ▫ Particularly ORT for diarrhoea, antibiotics for
pneumonia
• Although this could be seen as an opportunity, the failure of community case management interventions is a challenge
• Given recent rates of utilization change, 50% of high-U5MR countries are expected to have U5MR rates in excess of 50‰ in 2035
Rise of Injury Mortality
• In some regions:
▫ Injuries are the largest single cause of death among children (especially boys) aged 12 to 59 months
▫ Injury mortality rates among 1-59 month-olds have increased since 2000
• Interventions to reduce injury mortality are not well-researched but are likely to be expensive
▫ Emphasis on built environment
Conclusions
• Progress in reducing child mortality over the last 2 decades has been impressive, though generally not adequate to achieve MDG-4 (ICPD) target
• Future progress depends on the balance of a number of favourable and unfavourable factors, some readily forecastable, some not ▫ Among favourable forecastable factors are increased
urbanization and improved educational profiles of mothers ▫ Among unfavourable forecastable factors are current low
rates of mortality from readily preventable infections, and concentrations of deaths in the neonatal period and of child populations in high mortality regions
• Progress can be accelerated by wider implementation of effective case management interventions
Language:English
Score: 663037.74
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https://www.un.org/en/developm...20/2013-EGM_Kenneth%20Hill.pdf
Data Source: un
Logs
The log production in 2001 was 1.06 million m3 , and compared to year 2000 it was
20.5% less. The decline of log production is mostly the result of hardwood log production
decline for 25.2%, while the softwood log production declined and reached the level of
282,000 m3. (...) Reduced production has influenced the decline of domestic consumption , but also the
export. (...) The export decline in quantitative meaning did not follow in the same measure the
export decline in financial meaning.
Language:English
Score: 662869.2
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https://unece.org/fileadmin/DA...arket/market-60/yugoslavia.pdf
Data Source: un
Logs
The log production in 2001 was 1.06 million m3 , and compared to year 2000 it was 20.5% less. The decline of log production is mostly the result of hardwood log production decline for 25.2%, while the softwood log production declined and reached the level of 282,000 m3. (...) Reduced production has influenced the decline of domestic consumption , but also the export. (...) The export decline in quantitative meaning did not follow in the same measure the export decline in financial meaning.
Language:English
Score: 662869.2
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https://unece.org/fileadmin/DA...arket/market-60/yugoslavia.doc
Data Source: un