Total collision rates is obtained by summing up all the shell contributions • Debris-Debris, Debris-Intact, and Intact-Intact collisions
• Probability of “k” collisions in a given time period (in 2,000 km orbital region)
Probability of k collisions in LEO (Debris-Debris, Debris-Intact, and Intact-Intact collisions)
All collision probabilities are
calculated beginning mid-2013.
Probability of exactly 4 collision by
2030 = 18.7%
Probability of 1 to 4 collision by
2030 = 50%
8
ISSUE 2
HOW “PROBABLE” IS
IT FOR TWO THINGS
TO GO BOOM IN
SPACE?
(...) ISSUE 1
WHAT HAPPENS
WHEN TWO THINGS
GO BOOM IN SPACE?
Are the “probabilities” useful?
• The probabilities determined in the previous slides are a “bird’s eye” view.
Language:English
Score: 763023.93
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https://www.unidir.org/sites/d...rin-presentation-eng-0-803.pdf
Data Source: un
The implementation always uses a 0 to represent the most-probable bit (MPB) and a 1 to represent the least probable bit (LPB). (...) The model uses an adaptive probability update rate designed to match the update rate of the current CABAC probability model. (...) Figure 8: Code to initialize the probability model.
Figure 9: Code to update the probability model for each new bit.
Language:English
Score: 755154.2
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https://www.itu.int/wftp3/av-a...e/2002_05_Fairfax/JVT-C029.doc
Data Source: un
The implementation always uses a 0 to represent the most-probable bit (MPB) and a 1 to represent the least probable bit (LPB). (...) The model uses an adaptive probability update rate designed to match the update rate of the current CABAC probability model. (...) Figure 8: Code to initialize the probability model.
Figure 9: Code to update the probability model for each new bit.
Language:English
Score: 755154.2
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https://www.itu.int/wftp3/av-a...deo-site/0201_Gen/JVT-B033.doc
Data Source: un
The implementation always uses a 0 to represent the most-probable bit (MPB) and a 1 to represent the least probable bit (LPB). (...) The model uses an adaptive probability update rate designed to match the update rate of the current CABAC probability model. (...) Figure 8: Code to initialize the probability model.
Figure 9: Code to update the probability model for each new bit.
Language:English
Score: 755154.2
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https://www.itu.int/wftp3/av-a...te/2002_01_Geneva/JVT-B033.doc
Data Source: un
In parallel, the WAFCs are also intending to utilise developments in meteorological science capability to provide probability forecasts to quantify the risks of hazard phenomena. (...) For example, it will be technically possible to provide a probability of exceeding EDR levels on increments of 0.1. However, limits to dissemination capacity may prohibit providing more than just a probability of exceeding one or two discreet EDR levels.
3.
Language:English
Score: 753876.2
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https://www.icao.int/airnaviga...obability%20Forecasting%20.pdf
Data Source: un
DERIVATION OF A SMOOTH LIFE TABLE FROM A SET OF SURVIVORSHIP PROBABILITIES
A. BACKGROUND OF METHODS
I. Necessity of smoothing and completing sets of sumMwrship probabilities
There are several situations in which one can obtain estimates of life-table probabilities of survivorship, I(%), but in which one would still want to smooth' these esti- mates with reference to a model life table. (...) In yet other situations, one may wish to derive com- plete sets of life-table probabilities of survivorship, 1 (x ), from childhood mortality estimates and conditional sur- vivorship probabilities for adults (such as the probability of surviving from age A to age B, I (B)/l (A )). (...) Both require as input a set of child survivorship probabilities, l(z), and a set of conditional survivorship probabilities of the form 1 (x )11 (y ).
Language:English
Score: 745508.45
-
https://www.un.org/en/developm...estimate/manual10/chapter6.pdf
Data Source: un
The numerical impact of the covariates is small probably because we considered what
respectively, as compared with the actual probability, 2.51 and 1.37 percent. (...) However,
in column (2), we find that if the firm is currently exporting, the firm’s probability of be-
coming a domestic firm is only 5 percent, whereas its probability of remaining an exporter
is 91 percent. (...) In Table 9, column (1) indicates the actual probability that domestic
firms are in each status in the next year, and column (2) the predicted probability of the
average domestic firm in each industry.
Language:English
Score: 742074.95
-
https://www.wto.org/english/re...e/gtdw_e/wkshop09_e/todo_e.pdf
Data Source: un
The value of the probability of vertical overlap Pz(1000), based on the actual observed Altimetry System Error (ASE) and typical Assigned Altitude Deviation (AAD) data is estimated to be of 2.4405 x 10-09 . This value meets the Global System Performance Specification that the probability of two aircraft will lose procedural vertical separation of 1000ft should be no greater than 1.7x10-8.
(...) ACTION BY THE MEETING
3.1 The meeting is invited to:
a) review and discuss the first draft version of the MID RVSM SMR 2015;
b) urge Kuwait and Jordan to resend their corrected traffic data according to the
required format; and
c) urge concerned States to correct their relevant remaining TDS which were not
processed for the safety analysis.
---------------
MIDRMA Board/14-WP/6 APPENDIX A
APPENDIX A
Description of TVR for each FIR:
Bahrain
Number of Flights involved: 25003 Flying Time: 8,528 hours Flying Distance: 3,764,928 NM Average Speed: 438.22 kts Passing Frequency (n_equiv): 1.01120E-002
Probability of Lateral Overlap (Py(0)): 0.16481
Technical Vertical Risk (N_az): (*) Probability of Vertical Overlap (Pz(1000)): 1.2914E-09 (*) TVR due technical: 4.429E-12
Bahrain FIR Total Vertical Collision Risk 3.4612E-10
Egypt
Number of Flights involved: 28754 Flying Time: 24,260 hours Flying Distance: 11,242,484 NM Average Speed: 454.96 kts Passing Frequency (n_equiv): 2.34226E-001
Probability of Lateral Overlap (Py(0)): 0.14726
Technical Vertical Risk (N_az): (*) Probability of Vertical Overlap (Pz(1000)): 2.2398E-09 (*) TVR due technical: 1.5878E-10
Cairo FIR Total Vertical Collision Risk: 1.7677E-09
Iran
Number of Flights involved: 37532 Flying Time: 49,516 hours Flying Distance: 21,390,270 NM Average Speed: 427.42 kts Passing Frequency (n_equiv): 7.29866E-001
Probability of Lateral Overlap (Py(0)): 0.16623
Technical Vertical Risk (N_az): (*) Probability of Vertical Overlap (Pz(1000)): 2.7451E-09 (*) TVR due technical: 6.8593E-10
Tehran FIR Overall Vertical Risk 6.8593E-10
MIDRMA Board/14-WP/6 APPENDIX A
A-2
Iraq
Number of Flights involved: 2949 Flying Time: 1,249 hours Flying Distance: 593,632 NM Average Speed: 478.45 kts Passing Frequency (n_equiv): 4.04474E-002
Probability of Lateral Overlap (Py(0)): 0.1246
Technical Vertical Risk (N_az): (*) Probability of Vertical Overlap (Pz(1000)): 1.0951E-08 (*) TVR due technical: 1.1328E-10
Tehran FIR Total Vertical Collision Risk 1.1328E-10
Lebanon
Number of Flights involved: 47 Flying Time: 5 hours Flying Distance: 1,948 NM Average Speed: 386.88 kts Passing Frequency (n_equiv): 0.00000E+000
Probability of Lateral Overlap (Py(0)): 0.08431
Technical Vertical Risk (N_az): (*) Probability of Vertical Overlap (Pz(1000)): 1.6809E-10 (*) TVR due technical: 0
Beirut FIR Total Vertical Collision Risk 0
Oman
Number of Flights involved: 36698 Flying Time: 22,894 hours Flying Distance: 10,679,441 NM Average Speed: 462.06 kts Passing Frequency (n_equiv): 2.70162E-001
Probability of Lateral Overlap (Py(0)): 0.16669
Technical Vertical Risk (N_az): (*) Probability of Vertical Overlap (Pz(1000)): 1.2111E-09 (*) TVR due technical: 1.1208E-10
Muscat FIR Total Vertical Collision Risk 1.1208E-10
MIDRMA Board/14-WP/6 APPENDIX A
A-3
Saudi Arabia
Number of Flights involved: 30686 Flying Time: 30,732 hours Flying Distance: 13,666,309 NM Average Speed: 456.86 kts Passing Frequency (n_equiv): 6.75695E-002
Probability of Lateral Overlap (Py(0)): 0.15035
Technical Vertical Risk (N_az): (*) Probability of Vertical Overlap (Pz(1000)): 1.8255E-09 (*) TVR due technical: 3.8115E-11
Jeddah FIR Total Vertical Collision Risk 3.8115E-11
Sudan
Number of Flights involved: 6295 Flying Time: 9,483 hours Flying Distance: 4,430,992 NM Average Speed: 461.41 kts Passing Frequency (n_equiv): 2.37858E-001
Probability of Lateral Overlap (Py(0)): 0.1694
Technical Vertical Risk (N_az): (*) Probability of Vertical Overlap (Pz(1000)): 7.1848E-09 (*) TVR due technical: 5.9493E-10
Khartoum FIR Total Vertical Collision Risk 5.9493E-10
Syria
Number of Flights involved: 1522 Flying Time: 313 hours Flying Distance: 128,474 NM Average Speed: 426.50 kts Passing Frequency (n_equiv): 1.51458E-001
Probability of Lateral Overlap (Py(0)): 0.1243
Technical Vertical Risk (N_az): (*) Probability of Vertical Overlap (Pz(1000)): 4.8846E-12 (*) TVR due technical: 1.893E-13
Damascus FIR Total Vertical Collision Risk 1.893E-13
MIDRMA Board/14-WP/6 APPENDIX A
A-4
UAE
Number of Flights involved: 24386 Flying Time: 5,598 hours Flying Distance: 2,182,613 NM Average Speed: 363.47 kts Passing Frequency (n_equiv): 8.65818E-002
Probability of Lateral Overlap (Py(0)): 0.16071
Technical Vertical Risk (N_az): (*) Probability of Vertical Overlap (Pz(1000)): 9.7352E-10 (*) TVR due technical: 2.8038E-11
Emirates FIR Total Vertical Collision Risk 4.3615E-09
Overall
Number of Flights involved: 193926 Flying Time: 152,578 hours Flying Distance: 68,081,088 NM Average Speed: 443.71 kts Average Passing Frequency: 3.47417E-001
Technical Vertical Risk (N_az): (*) Average Probability of Vertical Overlap (Pz(1000)): 2.4405E-09 (*)TVR due technical: 3.1152E-10
MID RVSM Airspace Overall Vertical Collision Risk 7.4544E-10*
- END -
Agenda Item 4: RVSM Monitoring and related Technical Issues
MID RVSM SMR 2015 INITIAL RESULTS
(Presented by MIDRMA)
1.
Language:English
Score: 741252.4
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https://www.icao.int/MID/Docum...16/MIDRMA%20Board14/WP%206.pdf
Data Source: un
To encode a binary decision (bin) after binarization, context modelling determines a probability of the next bit by using a finite state model with 64 states, and the bin encoder based on BAC encodes the bit by using the estimated probability; in order to decode the bin at the decoder, the same context modeling process is used to determine the probability, and then the bin decoder based on BAC recovers the bin by using the probability.
(...) This is however simpler as the probability associated to the first bin is applied to the following bins. (No probability update needed within the group of bins).
Language:English
Score: 741189.1
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https://www.itu.int/wftp3/av-a...010_07_B_Geneva/JCTVC-B036.doc
Data Source: un
The example of Figure 1 shows the probability distribution of MBtype corresponding to three sequences together with the ideal probability distribution of UVLC codewords. (...) By default, a frame is classified as Normal. If the probability of the ‘16x16’ MBtype exceeds the probability of the ‘Skip’ MBtype, the frame is classified as High Motion. When the probability of ‘Skip’ dominates we compute the average run of ‘Skip’ symbols.
Language:English
Score: 741189.1
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https://www.itu.int/wftp3/av-a...deo-site/0104_Aus/VCEG-M14.doc
Data Source: un
