Simple methods are available for modeling risk, requiring minimum expertise in statistics and probabilities, together with user-friendly computer programmes. (...) (iii) Create a distribution graph (e.g. probability density graph, relative frequency histogram) that plots the probabilities of the IRR/NPV (and their average value ). (...) In the example (Figure 1 : Probability of IRR), the probability of the IRR is around 14.4 percent, but there is also a risk (36.9 percent) that the mean IRR may fall below 12 percent (the discount rate assumed in several FEA).
Language:English
Score: 712106.25
-
https://www.fao.org/investment...es-and-tasks/risk-analysis/ru/
Data Source: un
Adjustments shown using less well-
known methods
Age misreporting
Age misreporting (45+)
New method(s) based on:
Basic statistic: cmRx(T1,T2) computed using two
censuses (at T1 and T2) and intercensal deaths
between T1 and T2
A standard pattern of age misreporting
Alternative techniques to estimate magnitude of
age misreporting
Statistic: cmRx(T1,T2)
From previous studies (Dechter-Preston, Del
Popolo, Preston-Condran-Himes) using (a) two
census at T1 and T2 and intercensal deaths in (T1,T2)
Behavior of key statistic cmRx(T1,T2) under
different conditions
Main problems:
Unequal census completeness leads to statistic’s
behavior that mimics age over(under)statement
Intercensal migration leads to statistic’s behavior
that mimic age over(under)statement
Conditions :
Adjusted for relative completeness of census enumeration
Closed to migration (or adjusted for it)
Age patterns and levels of age
misreporting Main idea:
Detect problem with statistic
Reconstruct true population (matrix)
Age pattern of age misreporting
Level of age misreporting
From previous studies
India (Bhat)
Latin America (Ortega)
US: Medicare records (Preston et al)
We use Costa Rica 2002 matching study (census-voting register) and estimate standard patterns of
Population age misreporting
Probability of over(under) stating age at age x
Conditional probability of over(under) stating age by 1-10 years given over(under) statement at age x
The above is referred to as “standard pattern of age misstatement”
Generates a “standard matrix” of population transfers across ages
Main results from Costa Rica study
Gender differences in age misreporting: marginal
Age differences in prob. of misreporting: large
Overstatement overwhelms under statement
Age patterns of age misreporting
Outcome
Matrix of net “age transfers” is a standard pattern
of age misreporting that we assume prevails in all
countries
Observed patterns produced by identical
standard but different levels of age misreporting (age specific probability of misreporting)
Standard death and population patterns of age
misreporting are identical
Strategy
Estimate model predicting prob of age net
overstatement as a function of age
Estimate negative binomial model for conditional probability of overestimation
Generate the Costa Rican standard of age net
overstatement
Allow shifts in levels of net overstatement: the shifts
or magnitude of age misreporting are estimated
from data
Identification conditions
We can estimate both LEVELS of net overstatement of ages at death and population
BUT:
Cannot identify simultaneously population over
and under statement, only net overstatement
Must assume age patterns of over (under)
statement of ages at death and population are
identical
Must assume that standard is appropriate for
observed population
METHODS TO ESTIMATE MAGNITUDE OF AGE
MISREPORTING DEATH AND POPULATION
Brute force iterative procedure :
plausible but time consuming
Inverse regression based on regression models
estimated in simulated population. (...) Adjust mortality rates and construction life tables from age 5 on
Uncertainty
Evaluation study produces
Metapopulation====== error distributions of each
candidate method under different conditions
violating assumption
Can attach probability (of error) measure to each
candidate method
Can use them explicitly in estimation thus
generating bounds of uncertainty of target parameters
THANK YOU
Language:English
Score: 710399.76
-
https://www.un.org/development...mber-2016-modified_palloni.pdf
Data Source: un
By using this parameter, existence probability can be generated from the average and width of each cluster. (...) After creating the existence probability for all clusters, a convolution is given to all clusters. All existence probabilities created from each cluster is summed up and transformed the area generated in this summation process into 1.
Language:English
Score: 710099.56
-
https://www.itu.int/en/publica.../files/basic-html/page745.html
Data Source: un
SEVERITY PROBABILITY & RISK | Shop.un.org : Official Source for United Nations Books and More
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SEVERITY PROBABILITY & RISK
English
Series:
IAEA Technical Document
Severity, Probability and Risk of Accidents during Maritime Transport of Radioactive Material
Author:
IAEA
Publication date: June 2003
Page count: 188
Language(s) in this book:
English
Sales number: 03.L.12
Available Formats
Unavailable
About the product
This document represents the final outcome of an International Atomic Energy Agency coordinated research project that studied the fire environment on board ships, as part of research on the severity of accidents in the maritime transport of radioactive material.
Language:English
Score: 709842.77
-
https://shop.un.org/books/severity-probability-risk-25475
Data Source: un
SEVERITY PROBABILITY & RISK | Shop.un.org : Official Source for United Nations Books and More
Skip to main content
Welcome to the United Nations
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中文
English
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Русский
Español
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You are here
Shop
»
SEVERITY PROBABILITY & RISK
English
Series:
IAEA Technical Document
Severity, Probability and Risk of Accidents during Maritime Transport of Radioactive Material
Author:
IAEA
Publication date: June 2003
Page count: 188
Language(s) in this book:
English
Sales number: 03.L.12
Available Formats
Unavailable
About the product
This document represents the final outcome of an International Atomic Energy Agency coordinated research project that studied the fire environment on board ships, as part of research on the severity of accidents in the maritime transport of radioactive material.
Language:English
Score: 709842.77
-
https://shop.un.org/node/25475
Data Source: un
He has a high reputation amongst the Arabs and is probably a well qualified leader in this particular situation.
(...) An eventual conquering of Jaffa will have only a morale effect and: probably be expensive in casualties.
IV. PROBABLE DEVELOPMENT
The decisions end actions token by the United Nations will obviously influence the development In Palestine. (...) The political leaders probably have insufficient grip on the situation to stop all fighting.
Language:English
Score: 709707.5
-
https://www.un.org/unispal/document/auto-insert-212061/
Data Source: un
The overall
effect would probably be a reduction in borrowing costs.
Table 6 Calibrating Macroprudential Policy in a 19 country sample
To reduce sample average
probability in whole
sample
Reduce probability by 1%
Increase in capital ratio
Reduce probability by 2%
Increase in capital ratio
Crisis probability 3.8
(Table 3, column 4)
1.4
3.25
To keep constant sample
average probability in
European sample
Capital increase needed
to offset effect of a 1%
rise in real house prices
Capital increase needed
to offset a 1 percentage point fall
in the Lerner index
Crisis probability 4.8
(Table 4, column 4)
0.21
0.045
Of course, it is difficult to calibrate macroprudential policies so closely as this, but the general
message is clear. (...) An appendix table sets out
some indicators of crisis probabilities for the whole of our estimation period, whist another sets
out indicators of crisis probabilities for the current period. (...) Currently Germany, Japan, New Zealand and
probably Australia should look at issues with the housing market, and there are lesser concerns
in the US, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Italy, France and Canada where predicted crisis
probabilities for 2019 exceed 2 percent.
Language:English
Score: 709139.45
-
https://www.un.org/development...2019LINK-Monday-Session4-B.pdf
Data Source: un
As of 31 August 2014, 3685 (probable, confirmed and suspected) cases and 1841 deaths have been reported in the current outbreak of Ebola virus disease by the Ministries of Health of Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone.
(...) Widespread and intense transmission as at 31 August 2014
Country
Case definition
Total
Total (deaths)
Case fatality rate (%)
Guinea
Confirmed
579
343
59
Probable
150
149
99
Suspected
42
2
5
All
771
494
64
Liberia
Confirmed
403
271
67
Probable
815
373
46
Suspected
480
227
47
All
1698
871
51
Sierra Leone
Confirmed
1107
430
39
Probable
37
34
92
Suspected
72
12
17
All
1216
476
39
All
All
3685
1841
50
Initial case(s) and localized transmission as at 31 August 2014
Country
Case definition
Total
Total deaths
Case fatality rate (%)
Nigeria
Confirmed
16
6
37.5
Probable
1
1
100
Suspected
4
0
0
All
21
7
33.3
Senegal
Confirmed
1
0
0
Probable
0
0
0
Suspected
0
0
0
All
1
0
0
All
All
22
7
31.8
Note: A separate outbreak of Ebola virus disease, which is not related to the outbreak in west Africa, was laboratory-confirmed on 26 August by the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).
Language:English
Score: 707392.1
-
https://www.who.int/csr/don/2014_09_04_ebola/en/
Data Source: un
The pilots are allocated randomly posterior probability. As such, to obtain the estimated channel, in subcarriers while they share the same location in each we need to infer the posterior probability of the unknown OFDM symbol in different transmit antenna, but each pilot parameters. While the posterior probability is proportional x 8 sequence is unique. (...) Therefore, the received signal estimation is the expectation of the posterior probability at a certain mobile station can be expressed as distribution [17,18].
Language:English
Score: 707392.1
-
https://www.itu.int/en/publica...s/files/basic-html/page86.html
Data Source: un
What were the Impacts
2009-2-10 5
Effects: Intended
Effects: Unintended
2009-2-10 6
Impacts: Water
Intended
•Water in to the people, required quantity and in time •Saving of water wastage
•Change in attitudes
•Revenue to the Water Board
Unintended
•Employment for Women
•Social Capital: Tackling Issues
Impact: Energy
Intended
• Power supply for the poor
• Boost in productive activity
Unintended
• Organization of the people
• A system of planning
• Social Development
• CSR
Impact: Health
Intended
• Access to ARV
• Psycho-social counseling
Unintended
• Social Rehabilitation of PLWHAs
• Increasing income
Impact: Bio-diversity
Intended
• Probably increasing in Bio-diversity
• In-situ conservation: probably
• Ex-situ conservation: probably
Unintended
• Income generation
• Asset re-valuation
• Social Fencing for bio-diversity
• Hit for the poor
2009-2-10 10
Thank you
Language:English
Score: 706882.6
-
https://www.un.org/esa/dsd/dsd...tings/ws0109/3_2_Mukherjee.pdf
Data Source: un