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Simple methods are available for modeling risk, requiring minimum expertise in statistics and probabilities, together with user-friendly computer programmes. (...) (iii) Create a distribution graph (e.g. probability density graph, relative frequency histogram) that plots the probabilities of the IRR/NPV (and their average value ). (...) In the example (Figure 1 : Probability of IRR), the probability of the IRR is around 14.4 percent, but there is also a risk (36.9 percent) that the mean IRR may fall below 12 percent (the discount rate assumed in several FEA).
Language:English
Score: 712106.25 - https://www.fao.org/investment...es-and-tasks/risk-analysis/ru/
Data Source: un
Adjustments shown using less well- known methods Age misreporting Age misreporting (45+)  New method(s) based on:  Basic statistic: cmRx(T1,T2) computed using two censuses (at T1 and T2) and intercensal deaths between T1 and T2  A standard pattern of age misreporting  Alternative techniques to estimate magnitude of age misreporting Statistic: cmRx(T1,T2)  From previous studies (Dechter-Preston, Del Popolo, Preston-Condran-Himes) using (a) two census at T1 and T2 and intercensal deaths in (T1,T2) Behavior of key statistic cmRx(T1,T2) under different conditions  Main problems:  Unequal census completeness leads to statistic’s behavior that mimics age over(under)statement  Intercensal migration leads to statistic’s behavior that mimic age over(under)statement  Conditions :  Adjusted for relative completeness of census enumeration  Closed to migration (or adjusted for it) Age patterns and levels of age misreporting  Main idea:  Detect problem with statistic  Reconstruct true population (matrix)  Age pattern of age misreporting  Level of age misreporting  From previous studies  India (Bhat)  Latin America (Ortega)  US: Medicare records (Preston et al)  We use Costa Rica 2002 matching study (census-voting register) and estimate standard patterns of  Population age misreporting  Probability of over(under) stating age at age x  Conditional probability of over(under) stating age by 1-10 years given over(under) statement at age x  The above is referred to as “standard pattern of age misstatement”  Generates a “standard matrix” of population transfers across ages Main results from Costa Rica study  Gender differences in age misreporting: marginal  Age differences in prob. of misreporting: large  Overstatement overwhelms under statement Age patterns of age misreporting Outcome  Matrix of net “age transfers” is a standard pattern of age misreporting that we assume prevails in all countries  Observed patterns produced by identical standard but different levels of age misreporting (age specific probability of misreporting)  Standard death and population patterns of age misreporting are identical Strategy  Estimate model predicting prob of age net overstatement as a function of age  Estimate negative binomial model for conditional probability of overestimation  Generate the Costa Rican standard of age net overstatement  Allow shifts in levels of net overstatement: the shifts or magnitude of age misreporting are estimated from data Identification conditions  We can estimate both LEVELS of net overstatement of ages at death and population  BUT:  Cannot identify simultaneously population over and under statement, only net overstatement  Must assume age patterns of over (under) statement of ages at death and population are identical  Must assume that standard is appropriate for observed population METHODS TO ESTIMATE MAGNITUDE OF AGE MISREPORTING DEATH AND POPULATION  Brute force iterative procedure :  plausible but time consuming  Inverse regression based on regression models estimated in simulated population. (...) Adjust mortality rates and construction life tables from age 5 on Uncertainty  Evaluation study produces  Metapopulation====== error distributions of each candidate method under different conditions violating assumption  Can attach probability (of error) measure to each candidate method  Can use them explicitly in estimation thus generating bounds of uncertainty of target parameters THANK YOU
Language:English
Score: 710399.76 - https://www.un.org/development...mber-2016-modified_palloni.pdf
Data Source: un
By using this parameter, existence probability can be generated from the average and width of each cluster. (...) After creating the existence probability for all clusters, a convolution is given to all clusters. All existence probabilities created from each cluster is summed up and transformed the area generated in this summation process into 1.
Language:English
Score: 710099.56 - https://www.itu.int/en/publica.../files/basic-html/page745.html
Data Source: un
SEVERITY PROBABILITY & RISK | Shop.un.org : Official Source for United Nations Books and More Skip to main content Welcome to the United Nations عربي 中文 English Français Русский Español Search form Search Toggle navigation Books Authors Series Subjects Librarians Databases Distributors Educators Catalogue Standing Orders Rights & Permissions Subscriptions Shopping cart You are here Shop » SEVERITY PROBABILITY & RISK English Series: IAEA Technical Document Severity, Probability and Risk of Accidents during Maritime Transport of Radioactive Material Author: IAEA Publication date: June 2003 Page count: 188 Language(s) in this book: English Sales number: 03.L.12 Available Formats Unavailable About the product This document represents the final outcome of an International Atomic Energy Agency coordinated research project that studied the fire environment on board ships, as part of research on the severity of accidents in the maritime transport of radioactive material.
Language:English
Score: 709842.77 - https://shop.un.org/books/severity-probability-risk-25475
Data Source: un
SEVERITY PROBABILITY & RISK | Shop.un.org : Official Source for United Nations Books and More Skip to main content Welcome to the United Nations عربي 中文 English Français Русский Español Search form Search Toggle navigation Books Authors Series Subjects Librarians Databases Distributors Educators Catalogue Standing Orders Rights & Permissions Subscriptions Shopping cart You are here Shop » SEVERITY PROBABILITY & RISK English Series: IAEA Technical Document Severity, Probability and Risk of Accidents during Maritime Transport of Radioactive Material Author: IAEA Publication date: June 2003 Page count: 188 Language(s) in this book: English Sales number: 03.L.12 Available Formats Unavailable About the product This document represents the final outcome of an International Atomic Energy Agency coordinated research project that studied the fire environment on board ships, as part of research on the severity of accidents in the maritime transport of radioactive material.
Language:English
Score: 709842.77 - https://shop.un.org/node/25475
Data Source: un
He has a high reputation amongst the Arabs and is probably a well qualified leader in this particular situation. (...) An eventual conquering of Jaffa will have only a morale effect and: probably be expensive in casualties. IV. PROBABLE DEVELOPMENT The decisions end actions token by the United Nations  will obviously influence the development In Palestine. (...) The political leaders probably have insufficient grip on the situation to stop all fighting.
Language:English
Score: 709707.5 - https://www.un.org/unispal/document/auto-insert-212061/
Data Source: un
The overall effect would probably be a reduction in borrowing costs. Table 6 Calibrating Macroprudential Policy in a 19 country sample To reduce sample average probability in whole sample Reduce probability by 1% Increase in capital ratio Reduce probability by 2% Increase in capital ratio Crisis probability 3.8 (Table 3, column 4) 1.4 3.25 To keep constant sample average probability in European sample Capital increase needed to offset effect of a 1% rise in real house prices Capital increase needed to offset a 1 percentage point fall in the Lerner index Crisis probability 4.8 (Table 4, column 4) 0.21 0.045 Of course, it is difficult to calibrate macroprudential policies so closely as this, but the general message is clear. (...) An appendix table sets out some indicators of crisis probabilities for the whole of our estimation period, whist another sets out indicators of crisis probabilities for the current period. (...) Currently Germany, Japan, New Zealand and probably Australia should look at issues with the housing market, and there are lesser concerns in the US, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Italy, France and Canada where predicted crisis probabilities for 2019 exceed 2 percent.
Language:English
Score: 709139.45 - https://www.un.org/development...2019LINK-Monday-Session4-B.pdf
Data Source: un
As of 31 August 2014, 3685 (probable, confirmed and suspected) cases and 1841 deaths have been reported in the current outbreak of Ebola virus disease by the Ministries of Health of Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. (...) Widespread and intense transmission as at 31 August 2014 Country Case definition Total Total (deaths)  Case fatality rate (%) Guinea Confirmed 579 343 59 Probable 150 149 99 Suspected 42 2 5 All 771 494 64 Liberia Confirmed 403 271 67 Probable 815 373 46 Suspected 480 227 47 All 1698 871 51 Sierra Leone Confirmed 1107 430 39 Probable 37 34 92 Suspected 72 12 17 All 1216 476 39 All All 3685 1841 50 Initial case(s) and localized transmission as at 31 August 2014 Country Case definition Total Total deaths Case fatality rate (%) Nigeria Confirmed 16 6 37.5 Probable 1 1 100 Suspected 4 0 0 All 21 7 33.3 Senegal Confirmed 1 0 0 Probable 0 0 0 Suspected 0 0 0 All 1 0 0 All All 22 7 31.8 Note: A separate outbreak of Ebola virus disease, which is not related to the outbreak in west Africa, was laboratory-confirmed on 26 August by the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).
Language:English
Score: 707392.1 - https://www.who.int/csr/don/2014_09_04_ebola/en/
Data Source: un
The pilots are allocated randomly posterior probability. As such, to obtain the estimated channel, in subcarriers while they share the same location in each we need to infer the posterior probability of the unknown OFDM symbol in different transmit antenna, but each pilot parameters. While the posterior probability is proportional x 8 sequence is unique. (...) Therefore, the received signal estimation is the expectation of the posterior probability at a certain mobile station can be expressed as distribution [17,18].
Language:English
Score: 707392.1 - https://www.itu.int/en/publica...s/files/basic-html/page86.html
Data Source: un
What were the Impacts 2009-2-10 5 Effects: Intended Effects: Unintended 2009-2-10 6 Impacts: Water Intended •Water in to the people, required quantity and in time •Saving of water wastage •Change in attitudes •Revenue to the Water Board Unintended •Employment for Women •Social Capital: Tackling Issues Impact: Energy Intended • Power supply for the poor • Boost in productive activity Unintended • Organization of the people • A system of planning • Social Development • CSR Impact: Health Intended • Access to ARV • Psycho-social counseling Unintended • Social Rehabilitation of PLWHAs • Increasing income Impact: Bio-diversity Intended • Probably increasing in Bio-diversity • In-situ conservation: probably • Ex-situ conservation: probably Unintended • Income generation • Asset re-valuation • Social Fencing for bio-diversity • Hit for the poor 2009-2-10 10 Thank you
Language:English
Score: 706882.6 - https://www.un.org/esa/dsd/dsd...tings/ws0109/3_2_Mukherjee.pdf
Data Source: un