Kohler
Population Studies Center
University of Pennsylvania
Overall Structure of the Survey on Aging in SSA
2 major components:
• Household Interview
• Individual Interview
• Both will be linked based on HH ID and individual ID
Overall Sampling Design
Nationally representative stratified random sample of households that include at least 1 household member age 60 years and older
Household sample surveys: Key source for data on social phenomena
Are among the most flexible methods of data collections
In theory almost any population-based subject can be investigated through household surveys
Only probability samples following well-established sampling procedures are suitable for making inferences from the sample population to the larger population that it is designed to represent Snow-ball or convenience samples are not suitable for this survey
Overall Sampling Design cont’d
Probability sampling in the context of household surveys: Refers to the means by which elements of the target population are selected
for inclusion in the survey
In order to be cost-effective, most household surveys are not implemented as simple random samples
Sampling procedure usually includes stratification to ensure that the selected sample actually is spread over geographic sub-areas and population subgroups
This sampling design usually uses clusters of households in order to keep costs to manageable level
General Principals of the Survey on Aging in SSA
Target population: individuals age 60+ and older
Household sample: Nationally representative clustered random sample of households that include household members age 60+ yrs.
Selection of household members: All regular household members age 60+ in the sampled household and their spouses if these are age-eligible and co-resident
General Principals of the Survey on Aging in SSA
Use of an existing sampling frame: clustered random sample of households can only be obtained from existing sampling frame which is a complete list of statistical units covering the target population
Census frame, complete list of villages/communities or sampling list from other nationally representative surveys
Sampling frame: is a complete list of sampling units that entirely covers the target population
Conventional sampling frame: list of enumeration areas (EA) from a recently completed census
EA: geographic area which usually groups a number of households together for convenient counting purposes
General Principals of the Survey on Aging in SSA
Stratification: process in which the sample is designed into sub- groups or strata that are as homogeneous as possible;
Within each stratum the sample is designed and selected independently;
Two-stage cluster sampling procedure: Cluster: a group of adjacent households which serves as the primary sampling unit (PSU)
General Principals of the Survey on Aging in SSA
Full coverage of the target population: should be nationally representative and cover 100% of the target population; that is no subpopulations age 60+ are systematically excluded;
Probability sampling: sample should be obtained as probabilistic sample based on existing sampling frame using established sampling procedures;
Only way to obtain unbiased estimation and to be able to evaluate the sampling errors
Excluded are purposive sampling, quota sampling, and other uncontrolled non-probability methods because they cannot provide evaluation of precision and confidence of survey findings
General Principals of the Survey on Aging in SSA
Full coverage of the target population: should be nationally representative and cover 100% of the target population; that is no subpopulations age 60+ are systematically excluded;
Probability sampling: sample should be obtained as probabilistic sample based on existing sampling frame using established sampling procedures;
Only way to obtain unbiased estimation and to be able to evaluate the sampling errors
Excluded are purposive sampling, quota sampling, and other uncontrolled non-probability methods because they cannot provide evaluation of precision and confidence of survey findings
Sample Size
Sample size must take into account competing needs so that costs and precisions are optimally balanced
Sample size must also address the needs of users who desire for sub-populations of sub-areas domains
Sample size is determined by the trade-offs between survey precision, data quality, organizational capacities and survey budget;
In the case of Malawi this is about 2,000 respondents (men and women)
Conducting a household listing and pre-selection of households
Data quality is enhances if eligible households are preselected for participating in the study
In many SSA countries recent and reliable household listings in EAs that carefully enumerates older individuals is not available
Hence, we suggest to conduct a specific household listing in selected EAs that provides a well-grounded basis for selecting respondents
Interviewers than interview only pre-selected eligible households
STEPS:
Household listing operation conducted before the survey
Pre-selection of households from this list
Selected Households are interviewed
Overall Sampling Design cont’d
Two stage sample design is well-established approach for implementing household surveys
1st stage: select a sample of EAs with probability proportional to size (PPS); Within each stratum a sample of predetermined number of EAs is selected
independently with probability proportional to size, where size is measured in terms of older individuals age 60+;
If size of pop age 60+ is not available, and variations in age structures are relatively modest, then total pop size can be used
All households in the EAs are listed
2nd stage: after complete listing in EAs, a fixed number of households with individuals age 60+ is selected by equal probability sampling in the EAs
Interviewing all individuals age 60+ in the HH
Advantages:
Maximize the number of respondents for a given sample of HH
Cost effective to achieve the sample size
Analytical advantages so that interactions among spouses, within and between household variation of outcomes can be investigated
Disadvantages:
Lower statistical power given the within household correlation of observations
Logistical challenges in the fieldwork
Sample Take per Cluster
How many eligible individuals to interview per EA
DHS recommends 25-30 individuals
Because there will be more than 1 age-eligible individual per household, less than 24-30 households per PA need to be selected
If a sampled HH has 1.5 age-eligible individuals on average, than a sample take per cluster of 25-30 individuals results in the selection of 17-20 households per cluster
With 2,000 individuals sample size: 67-80 clusters have to be selected
If sample is stratified, these considerations should be conducted stratum- specific
Sample Take per Cluster
This fixed sample take per cluster is:
Easy for survey management and implementation
But requires sampling weights that vary within clusters
Language:English
Score: 776401.86
-
https://www.un.org/development...07_ikohler-sampling-design.pdf
Data Source: un
How- • Base infection probabilities. Given the fact ever, in general WiFi systems, an individual may that we cannot test every individual, each untested have multiple devices, and removing the duplication individual has a base probability of being infected. is significant in this case. (...) This tion probability can be deduced from the positive chance may also be time-variant. (...) For in- probability that got infection from a contact with stance, a university randomly tested 1,000 students .
Language:English
Score: 764463.96
-
https://www.itu.int/en/publica.../files/basic-html/page113.html
Data Source: un
Total collision rates is obtained by summing up all the shell contributions • Debris-Debris, Debris-Intact, and Intact-Intact collisions
• Probability of “k” collisions in a given time period (in 2,000 km orbital region)
Probability of k collisions in LEO (Debris-Debris, Debris-Intact, and Intact-Intact collisions)
All collision probabilities are
calculated beginning mid-2013.
Probability of exactly 4 collision by
2030 = 18.7%
Probability of 1 to 4 collision by
2030 = 50%
8
ISSUE 2
HOW “PROBABLE” IS
IT FOR TWO THINGS
TO GO BOOM IN
SPACE?
(...) ISSUE 1
WHAT HAPPENS
WHEN TWO THINGS
GO BOOM IN SPACE?
Are the “probabilities” useful?
• The probabilities determined in the previous slides are a “bird’s eye” view.
Language:English
Score: 761868.9
-
https://www.unidir.org/sites/d...rin-presentation-eng-0-803.pdf
Data Source: un
ITU-R P.618.
2 Modelling of the probability of rain attenuation on Earth-space link
Knowing N equally distributed points on the ground projection of the path of length L and under the rain height Hr as illustrated in Figure 1, the probability to have non-zero rain attenuation on the path, P(AR>0) , is equal to the complementary probability to not have rain on each point of the path:
(1)
with: and .
Figure 1
Geometry of the link
2.1 Expression of the probability of rain attenuation from the spatial correlation of rain rate fields
The joint probability can be expressed from the correlation between the random variables R(x1) , R(x2) ,…, R(xN) . (...) Figure 3
Probability to have rain attenuation on the link in function of the probability of rain and the ground projection of the link
This contribution has presented a model of the probability to have rain attenuation of an Earth-space link.
Language:English
Score: 756038.96
-
https://www.itu.int/dms_pub/it...0a/04/R0A0400007F0001MSWE.docx
Data Source: un
The implementation always uses a 0 to represent the most-probable bit (MPB) and a 1 to represent the least probable bit (LPB). (...) The model uses an adaptive probability update rate designed to match the update rate of the current CABAC probability model. (...) Figure 8: Code to initialize the probability model.
Figure 9: Code to update the probability model for each new bit.
Language:English
Score: 754118.5
-
https://www.itu.int/wftp3/av-a...e/2002_05_Fairfax/JVT-C029.doc
Data Source: un
The implementation always uses a 0 to represent the most-probable bit (MPB) and a 1 to represent the least probable bit (LPB). (...) The model uses an adaptive probability update rate designed to match the update rate of the current CABAC probability model. (...) Figure 8: Code to initialize the probability model.
Figure 9: Code to update the probability model for each new bit.
Language:English
Score: 754118.5
-
https://www.itu.int/wftp3/av-a...deo-site/0201_Gen/JVT-B033.doc
Data Source: un
The implementation always uses a 0 to represent the most-probable bit (MPB) and a 1 to represent the least probable bit (LPB). (...) The model uses an adaptive probability update rate designed to match the update rate of the current CABAC probability model. (...) Figure 8: Code to initialize the probability model.
Figure 9: Code to update the probability model for each new bit.
Language:English
Score: 754118.5
-
https://www.itu.int/wftp3/av-a...te/2002_01_Geneva/JVT-B033.doc
Data Source: un
Model Life Tables : Lexis Plots | United Nations Population Division | Department of Economic and Social Affairs
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Extended Model Life Tables : Scatter Plots
Back to Extended Model Life Tables
Analyses of Revised UN Model Life Tables
Scatter plots showing relations between different quantities in the revised UN Model Life Tables with superimposed data from 5x5 life tables from Human Mortality Database (www.mortality.org)
CD East_100_5g0_45g15_f
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CD East_100_g0_4g1_m
CD North_100_g0_4g1_m
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CD East_100_e0_45g15_m
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UN Chilean_100_e0_45g15_m
UN Far_East_Asian_100_e0_45g15_m
UN General_100_e0_45g15_m
UN Latin_100_e0_45g15_m
UN South_Asian_100_e0_45g15_m
CD East_100_e0_45g15_f
CD North_100_e0_45g15_f
CD South_100_e0_45g15_f
CD West_100_e0_45g15_f
UN Chilean_100_e0_45g15_f
UN Far_East_Asian_100_e0_45g15_f
UN General_100_e0_45g15_f
UN Latin_100_e0_45g15_f
UN South_Asian_100_e0_45g15_f
CD East_100_5g0_e0_m
CD North_100_5g0_e0_m
CD South_100_5g0_e0_m
CD West_100_5g0_e0_m
UN Chilean_100_5g0_e0_m
UN Far_East_Asian_100_5g0_e0_m
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CD East_100_5g0_e0_f
CD North_100_5g0_e0_f
CD South_100_5g0_e0_f
CD West_100_5g0_e0_f
UN Chilean_100_5g0_e0_f
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Legend:
q0 - infant mortality rate 4q1 - age-specific probability of dying from age 1 to age 5 5q0 - age-specific probability of dying from birth to age 5 45q15 - age-specific probability of dying from age 15 to age 60 g0 - logit of infant mortality rate 4g1 - logit of age specific probability of dying from age 1 to 4 5g0 - logit of age-specific probability of dying from birth to age 5 45g15 - logit of age-specific probability of dying from age 15 to age 60 e0 - life expectancy at birth 5e0 - temporary life expectancy between birth and age 5, 5L0 / l0 45e15 - temporary life expectancy between ages 15 and 60, 45L15 / l15 e60 - remaining life expectancy at age 60
Note: UN-MLT 2010 is based on the Coale-Demeny (1983) and UN (1982) model life tables and was extended to cover life expectancy up to 100+
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2012): United Nations Model Life Tables (UN-MLT 2010).
Language:English
Score: 751024.4
-
https://www.un.org/en/developm...ortality/mlt-scatter-plots.asp
Data Source: un
PowerPoint Presentation
SEA Pilot Project to Support Spatial Planning in Gurjaani
Practical Aspects of Effective SEA Implementation
Doug Hickman Nova Scotia, Canada
Example of Scoping Matrix Planning Item
Proposed Action
Stressor Biodiversity Soil Climate Air Water Landscape Protected Areas
Cultural Heritage
Health Socio- Economic
Trans- boundary Effects
Flora Fauna
Probable significant negative effect – to be addressed in SEA Report
Probable insignificant negative effect – will be briefly addressed in SEA Report
No significant effect or positive effect – will not be addressed in SEA Report
Legend
Example of Scoping Matrix Planning Item
Proposed Action
Stressor Biodiversity Soil Climate Air Water Landscape Protected Areas
Cultural Heritage
Health Socio- Economic
Trans- boundary Effects
Flora Fauna
Transport
Residential
Industrial
Etc
Probable significant negative effect – to be addressed in SEA Report
Probable insignificant negative effect – will be briefly addressed in SEA Report
No significant effect or positive effect – will not be addressed in SEA Report
Legend
Example of Scoping Matrix Planning Item
Proposed Action
Stressor Biodiversity Soil Climate Air Water Landscape Protected Areas
Cultural Heritage
Health Socio- Economic
Trans- boundary Effects
Flora Fauna
Transport New road – capacity: 500 cars/hour
Residential New apartments for 2000 people Single family houses for 1000 people
Industrial Light industrial buildings – 10 ha Warehousing – 4 ha
Etc
Probable significant negative effect – to be addressed in SEA Report
Probable insignificant negative effect – will be briefly addressed in SEA Report
No significant effect or positive effect – will not be addressed in SEA Report
Legend
Example of Scoping Matrix Planning Item
Proposed Action
Stressor Biodiversity Soil Climate Air Water Landscape Protected Areas
Cultural Heritage
Health Socio- Economic
Trans- boundary Effects
Flora Fauna
Transport New road – capacity: 500 cars/hour
Land use change Noise
Residential New apartments for 2000 people Single family houses for 1000 people
Land use change Demand for environ- mental services
Industrial Light industrial buildings – 10 ha Warehousing – 4 ha
Spills of hazardous substances
Etc
Probable significant negative effect – to be addressed in SEA Report
Probable insignificant negative effect – will be briefly addressed in SEA Report
No significant effect or positive effect – will not be addressed in SEA Report
Legend
Example of Scoping Matrix Planning Item
Proposed Action
Stressor Biodiversity Soil Climate Air Water Landscape Protected Areas
Cultural Heritage
Health Socio- Economic
Trans- boundary Effects
Flora Fauna
Transport New road – capacity: 500 cars/hour
Land use change Noise
Loss of habitat
Loss of habitat
Loss of high- quality agricultural soil
Ambiance of sites impacted by vehicle noise
Removal of houses
Residential New apartments for 2000 people Single family houses for 1000 people
Land use change Demand for environ- mental services
Loss of habitat
Loss of habitat
Soil pollution from Increased solid waste
Increase in GHG’s from organic waste
Odour from organic waste
Increase in water demand exceeds rate of recharge
Industrial Light industrial buildings – 10 ha Warehousing – 4 ha
Spills of hazardous substances
Air pollution from spilled items
Water pollution from spilled items
Toxic impact of spilled items
Water pollution from spilled materials
Etc
Probable significant negative effect – to be addressed in SEA Report
Probable insignificant negative effect – will be briefly addressed in SEA Report
No significant effect or positive effect – will not be addressed in SEA Report
Legend
Example of Scoping Matrix Planning Item
Proposed Action
Stressor Biodiversity Soil Climate Air Water Landscape Protected Areas
Cultural Heritage
Health Socio- Economic
Trans- boundary Effects
Flora Fauna
Transport New road – capacity: 500 cars/hour
Land use change Noise
Loss of habitat
Loss of habitat
Loss of high- quality agricultural soil
Ambiance of sites impacted by vehicle noise
Removal of houses
Residential New apartments for 2000 people Single family houses for 1000 people
Land use change Demand for environ- mental services
Loss of habitat
Loss of habitat
Soil pollution from Increased solid waste
Increase in GHG’s from organic waste
Odour from organic waste
Increase in water demand exceeds rate of recharge
Industrial Light industrial buildings – 10 ha Warehousing – 4 ha
Spills of hazardous substances
Air pollution from spilled items
Water pollution from spilled items
Toxic impact of spilled items
Water pollution from spilled materals
Etc
Probable significant negative effect – to be addressed in SEA Report
Probable insignificant negative effect – will be briefly addressed in SEA Report
No significant effect or positive effect – will not be addressed in SEA Report
Legend
SEA Pilot Project to Support Spatial Planning in Gurjaani
Example of Scoping Matrix
Example of Scoping Matrix
Example of Scoping Matrix
Example of Scoping Matrix
Example of Scoping Matrix
Example of Scoping Matrix
Language:English
Score: 748392.33
-
https://unece.org/sites/defaul...EA_16%20March%202022_ENG_0.pdf
Data Source: un
Single Year Mortality Under Age 5
Latin American Pattern M a l e s
Interpolation parameters T(f)
Life exp at birth
E(O)
35.00 36.00 37.00 38.00 39.00 40.00 41.00 42.00 43.00 44.00
Probability of dying between ages X and Y Q(X-Y)
Survivors at age X IOU
Life exp at birth
E(O)
Single Year Mortality Under Age 5
Latin American Pattern -Both sexes combined
Probability of dying between ages X and Y Q(X-Y)
Single Year Mortality Under Age 5
Chilean Pattern - Males life exp at birth
Probability of dyins between ages X and Y Q(X-Y)
Survivors at age X I00
Interpolation parameters T(1)
T(1) T(2) T(3)
Single Year Mortality Under Age 5
Chilean Pattern - Females
Life exp at birth
Probability of dying between ages X and Y Q(X-Y)
Survivors at age X I(X)
Interpolation parameters T(I)
T(1) T(2 ) T(3)
.06980 .I7984 .32596
.06630 .I7446 .32 181
.06295 .I6930 .3 1779
.05973 .I 6412 .31373
.05665 .I5917 .30978
.05368 .I5428 .30585 ,05085 .1496 1 .30202 .04812 .I4495 .298 17 .04550 .I4038 .29434 .04299 .I3596 .29059
Single Year Mortality Under Age 5
Chilean Pattern - Both sexes combined Life exp at birth
Probability of dying between ages X and Y Q(X-Y)
Survivors at age X I00
Single Year Mortality Under Age 5
South Asian Pattern - Females
Life exp Pmbability of dying between ages X and Y Survivors at age X at birth Q(X-Y) !(XI
E(O) Q(O-1) ~ ( 1 - 2 ) ~ ( 2 - 3 ) ~(3-11 ~ ( 4 - 5 ) l(1) l(2) 1(3) 1(4) 1(5)
Interpolation parameters T(I)
T(1) 70 ) T(3)
.I9922 .97869 ,50836
.I8883 .94452 .49894
.I7884 .91124 .48968
.I6932 .87950 .48074
.I601 1 .84808 .47186
.15 132 .8 1795 .46322
.I4291 .78877 .45481 13486 .76053 .44659 .I271 2 .73285 .43843 .I1970 .70597 .43044
Single Year Mortality Under Age 5
South Asian Pattern - Both sexes combined
Life exp Probability of dying between ages X and Y Survivors at age X at birth QOC-Y) Io()
E(O) Q(0-1) Q(1-2) Q(2-3) Q(3-4) Q(4-9 l(1) l(2) l(3) l(4) l(5)
Single Year Mortality Under Age 5
Far Eastern Pattern - Males Life exp Probability of dying between ages X and Y at birth Q(X-Y) -
~ ( 0 ) ~ ( 0 - 1 ) ~ ( 1 - 2 ) ~ ( 2 - 3 ) ~ ( 3 - 4 ) ~(4-5) 1(1)
Su~ivors at age X I(X)
Interpolotian parameters T(I)
T(1) T(2) T(3)
Single Year Mortality Under Age 5
Far Eastern Pattern - Females
Life exp Probability of dying between ages X and Y Survivors at age X at birth Q(X-Y) I(X)
E(O) a(o-1) Q(I-2) a(2-3) ~ ( 3 - 4 ) a(4-a I(I) 1(2) 1(3) ~ ( s ) r(5)
Interpolation parameters T(I)
T(1) T(2) T(3)
Single Year Mortality Under Age 5
Life .xp at birth
E(0)
Far Eastern Pattern - Both sexes combined
Probability of dying between ages X and Y Q(X-Y)
Survivors at age X 100
1(2) 1(3) ~ 4 )
80106 77706 76128 80810 78527 77024 81498 79326 77895 82170 80106 78746 82825 80866 79574 8 6 8160 80383 84095 182335i 8 1 172 84708 83043 81942 85309 83735 82695 85895 84410 83427
Single Year Mortality Under Age 5
General Pattern - Males
Life exp Probability of dying between ages X and Y at birth Q(X-Y)
E(O) a(o-1) a(r-2) Q(2-3) ~ ( 3 - 4 )
Survivors at age X I(X)
Interpolation parameters T(I)
Single Year Mortality Under Age 5
General Pattern - Females
Life exp Probability of dying between ages X and Y Survivors at age X at birth Q(X-Y) I()o
E(0) Q(0-1) Q(1-2) Q ( 2 4 0 0 - 4 ) Q(4-9 l(1) l(2) l(3) 1(4) J(5)
Interpolation parameters T(I)
Single Year Mortality Under Age 5
General Pattern - Both sexes combined Life exp at birth
Probability of dying between ages X and Y Q(X-Y )
Survivors at age X I(X)
Language:English
Score: 745240.7
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https://www.un.org/en/developm...ls/model/lifetables/annex2.pdf
Data Source: un