PowerPoint Presentation
© Institut des Finances Basil Fuleihan 2021
Social Protection Spending in Lebanon
A deep dive into State Financing of Social Protection Budget Review Policy Brief
In partnership with:
© Institut des Finances Basil Fuleihan 2021 2
Social Protection
Spending
Please cite this publication as:
Institut
http://institutdesfinances.gov.lb/publication/social-
protection-spending-in-lebanon-a-dive-into-the-state-financing-of-social-protection/
ISBN 978-9953-9037-0-5
This brief was prepared in collaboration with Financially Wise and published in partnership with UNICEF
and the International Labor Organization Enhancing Budget Transparency, Accountability and Inclusiveness in Lebanon
http://institutdesfinances.gov.lb/publication/social-protection-spending-in-lebanon-a-dive-into-the-state-financing-of-social-protection/
© Institut des Finances Basil Fuleihan 2021
I- Background & Methodology Context Lebanon s free fall into poverty Context Fiscal Outlook and exit scenario Purpose Drive evidence-based policy decisions Scope Analyzing the Government financing of social spending through its budget Methodology Data sources Methodology Definitions of social protection programs and services Methodology Assumptions Methodology Limitations Methodology Approach
II Findings of the Budget Review Macro-fiscal analysis - Social Protection spending as per the Functional Classification of Budget
Expanding the analysis beyond the functional classification Macro-fiscal analysis - Social Protection spending as per a wider definition Analysis of Social Protection spending by contingency Analysis of Social Protection spending by beneficiary group
Public sector Private sector Poor and vulnerable groups All sectors Other
3
Table of content Social Protection
Spending
© Institut des Finances Basil Fuleihan 2021
By pillar - main findings of Social Protection spending Pillar 1 Employment related social protection including Social Insurance Pillar 2 Social Assistance Pillar 3 Financial Access to services Pillar 4 Social Welfare Pillar 5 Economic inclusion and labor activation Analysis of Social Protection spending by Implementing agency Analysis of Social Protection spending by Source of Financing
III- Summary findings
IV- Conclusions & Recommendations
V- Appendixes
4
Table of content Social Protection
Spending
© Institut des Finances Basil Fuleihan 2021 5
Figure 1: Total budgeted expenses covering Social Protection (function 10)
Figure 2: Function 10-Social protection as share of current GDP
Figure 3: Public social protection expenditures, excluding health, selected regions (% of GDP) (2015)
Figure 4: Share of social protection expenditure (in % of GDP) in selected countries (2018)
Figure 5: Coverage of the poorest and richest quintiles by social safety nets, by country (in %) (World Bank, 2018)
Figure 6: Poverty and extreme Poverty Rates for the Lebanese population, 2012-2020 (World Bank, 2020)
Figure 7: Social protection coverage by decile, Lebanese citizens (ILO, 2021)
Figure 8: Distribution of beneficiaries and benefits (Lebanese citizens only), by income decile (ILO, 2021)
Figure 9: Share of informal sector in Lebanon (2009, 2010 2019, 2020)
Figure 10: Functional classification distribution of main functions under social protection
Figure 11: Functional classification major secondary functions
Figure 12: Proportion of Lebanese citizens receiving SP benefits, by selected individual characteristics (ILO, 2021)
Figure 13: Social protection spending classified outside function 10
Figure 14: Evolution of budgeted SP expenses per functions (functions as share of total SP)
Figure 15: Reclassification of social protection spending identified under and outside Function 10 into the five pillars
Figure 16: Effective SP spending as share of current GDP
Figure 17: Evolution of budgeted SP expenses as share of total budgeted expenses incl. annexed budgets* (thousands of LBP)
List of Figures Social Protection
Spending
© Institut des Finances Basil Fuleihan 2021 6
Figure 18: Cumulative SP spending by social risk between 2017-2019 (thousands of LBP) - excluding NSSF budget
Figure 19: SP spending on old ages (thousands of LBP) - including NSSF budget
Figure 20: SP spending on old ages per beneficiary group
Figure 21: SP spending on Wellbeing (thousands of LBP)
Figure 22: SP spending on Wellbeing per beneficiary group
Figure 23: SP spending on Medical care (thousands of LBP)
Figure 24: SP spending on Medical care per beneficiary group
Figure 25: Spending gap by beneficiary groups (thousands of LBP) 2017-2019)
Figure 26: SP spending by beneficiary group (thousands of LBP)
Figure 27: SP spending by beneficiary group all public sector groups (thousands of LBP)
Figure 28: SP spending by beneficiary group Public sector civil servants and military personnel (thousands of LBP))
Figure 29: Evolution of spending on pensions and end of service indemnities (thousands of LBP)
Figure 30: SP spending by beneficiary group military personnel (thousands of LBP)
Figure 31: Other social benefits to security forces (thousands of LBP)
Figure 32: SP spending by beneficiary group civil servants (thousands of LBP)
Figure 33:
Figure 34: Government contribution to other mutual funds (Effective spending - thousands of LBP)
List of Figures Social Protection
Spending
© Institut des Finances Basil Fuleihan 2021 7
Figure 35: SP spending by beneficiary group private sector workers (thousands of LBP)
Figure 36: Government contributions to other entities (Effective spending - thousands of LBP)
Figure 37: SP spending by beneficiary group poor and vulnerable categories (thousands of LBP)
Figure 38: SP spending by beneficiary group all sectors (thousands of LBP)
Figure 39: SP spending by beneficiary group other (thousands of LBP)
Figure 40: Evolution of main pillars by budgeted appropriations (thousands of LBP)
Figure 41: Evolution of disaggregated pillars by effective appropriations (thousands of LBP)
Figure 42: Spending gap by disaggregated pillars Social Insurance (thousands of LBP)
Figure 43: Spending gap by disaggregated pillars Social Assistance (thousands of LBP)
Figure 44: Spending gap by disaggregated pillars Financial Access to Services (thousands of LBP)
Figure 45: Spending gap by disaggregated pillars Social Welfare (thousands of LBP)
Figure 46: Spending gap by disaggregated pillars (thousands of LBP)
Figure 47: SP breakdown by implementing agency Average share of 2017,2018,2019
Figure 48: Appropriation share by line ministries Average share of effective spending over 4 years
Figure 49: Effective Social Protection spending by source of financing (percentage share)
Figure 50: Evolution of SP total expenses in thousands of LBP
Figure 51: Evolution of SP total expenses excluding Transfers to EDL (thousands of LBP)
List of Figures Social Protection
Spending
© Institut des Finances Basil Fuleihan 2021 8
Table 1: GFSM 2001 Classification of Expense by Function of Government
Table 2: Table 2: Social Protection n.e.c. breakdown by line-item, Lebanon, 2019
Table 3: Beneficiary group breakdown by programs sum of 2017, 2018, 2019 (thousands of LBP)
Table 4: Spending on drugs by Government agency
Table 5: Beneficiary group breakdown by programs excl. pensions sum of 2017, 2018, 2019 (thousands of LBP) Public Sector
Table 6: Beneficiary group breakdown by programs sum of 2017, 2018, 2019 (thousands of LBP) Private Sector
Table 7: Beneficiary group breakdown by programs sum of 2017, 2018, 2019 (thousands of LBP) Poor and vulnerable groups
Table 8: Beneficiary group breakdown by programs sum of 2017, 2018, 2019 (thousands of LBP) All sectors
Table 9: Beneficiary group breakdown by programs sum of 2017, 2018, 2019 (thousands of LBP) Other
Table 10: Social welfare spending gap by implementing agency - 2019 - (thousands of LBP)
Table 11: Economic inclusion and labor activation breakdown by program (thousands of LBP)
Table 12: Contribution schemes - (thousands of LBP)
Table 13: Beneficiary group breakdown by programs sum of 2017, 2018, 2019 (thousands of LBP)
List of Tables Social Protection
Spending
© Institut des Finances Basil Fuleihan 2021 9
BDL Banque du Liban (Central Bank)
BRD Beyond and Development Group
EDL Electricité du Liban
GFSM Government Finance Statistics Manual of the International Monetary Fund
ILO International Labor Organization
IMF International Monetary Fund
LBP Lebanese Pound
MoF Ministry of Finance
MoPH Ministry of Public Health
MOSA Ministry of Social Affairs
NSSF National Social Security Fund
SDC Social Development Center
SP Social Protection
UNHCR United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees
UNICEF United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund
WB World Bank
List of acronyms Social Protection
Spending
© Institut des Finances Basil Fuleihan 2021
Acknowledgement
10
The policy brief was prepared by a team from the Institut des Finances Basil Fuleihan composed of Sabine Hatem (Senior Economist),
Iskandar Boustany (Consultant and Budget Specialist, President of Financially Wise) and Abdo Daou (Consultant and Budget Analyst),
under the supervision of Lamia Moubayed Bissat (President). (...) It is
The functional classification was used in the first part of the review to map spending on social protection in Lebanon.
Social Protection
Spending
© Institut des Finances Basil Fuleihan 2021 22
Social Protection is a key function of Government spending and provides a straightforward estimation of social spending.
(...) Social Protection
Spending
Figure 18: Cumulative SP spending by social risk between 2017-2019 (thousands of LBP) - excluding NSSF budget
When social protection expenditures are analyzed across the lifecycle, the largest share of spending goes to Old Age and Survivors, followed by
well-being* and medical care, with very few discrepancies between budgeted and planned amounts.
Language:English
Score: 1315560.3
-
https://www.unicef.org/lebanon...view%20policy%20Brief%20EN.pdf
Data Source: un
While exports from Algeria to the US averaged around 300 thousand barrels per day in 2010, exports are now down below 100 thousand barrels per day (see figure) . (...) Oil exports make up over 90 per cent of total exports and the country requires a very high average oil price in order to cover domestic spending. The IMF’s most recent article IV consultation in February pointed to a price of $121 per barrel to balance the government budget which was higher than average owing to new increases in civil service wages and current transfers in 2012. The price to cover the budget is expected to fall to around $110 in 2013 as increases in wages are expected to slow in the 2013 budget and growth in spending on social programs will be sub- dued. While this will help to reduce the deficit for the current year, the country remains vulnerable to a drop in oil prices given that the current Brent oil price benchmark is already below the the price necessary to cover the budget .
the start of the
[1]Overall oil output was about 1.2 million barrels per day in 2012.
Language:English
Score: 1121400.4
-
https://www.un.org/development...uploads/sites/45/wesp_wh19.pdf
Data Source: un
Declining
Very low birth rate
Low death rate
Falling population
6/2/2017 ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean 3
The Caribbean population by age
(millions)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1950 1965 1980 1995 2010 2025 2040 2055 2070 2085 2100
0-14 15-59 60+
6/2/2017 ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean 4
Caribbean population by age and sex,
selected years 1990-2060 (thousands)
450 350 250 150 50 50 150 250 350 450
0-4 5-9
10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-94 95-99 100+
Male 1990 Female
6/2/2017 ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean 5
Caribbean population by age and sex,
selected years 1990-2060 (thousands)
450 350 250 150 50 50 150 250 350 450
0-4 5-9
10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-94 95-99 100+
Male 2000 Female
6/2/2017 ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean 6
Caribbean population by age and sex,
selected years 1990-2060 (thousands)
450 350 250 150 50 50 150 250 350 450
0-4 5-9
10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-94 95-99 100+
Male 2010 Female
6/2/2017 ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean 7
Caribbean population by age and sex,
selected years 1990-2060 (thousands)
450 350 250 150 50 50 150 250 350 450
0-4 5-9
10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-94 95-99 100+
Male 2020 Female
6/2/2017 ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean 8
Caribbean population by age and sex,
selected years 1990-2060 (thousands)
450 350 250 150 50 50 150 250 350 450
0-4 5-9
10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-94 95-99 100+
Male 2030 Female
6/2/2017 ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean 9
Caribbean population by age and sex,
selected years 1990-2060 (thousands)
450 350 250 150 50 50 150 250 350 450
0-4 5-9
10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-94 95-99 100+
Male 2040 Female
6/2/2017 ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean 10
Caribbean population by age and sex,
selected years 1990-2060 (thousands)
450 350 250 150 50 50 150 250 350 450
0-4 5-9
10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-94 95-99 100+
Male 2050 Female
6/2/2017 ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean 11
Caribbean population by age and sex,
selected years 1990-2060 (thousands)
450 350 250 150 50 50 150 250 350 450
0-4 5-9
10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-94 95-99 100+
Male 2060 Female
6/2/2017 ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean 12
The Caribbean population
2015 and 2035 (thousands)
500 400 300 200 100 0 100 200 300 400 500
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
90-94
95-99
100+ Male Female
2015 2035
6/2/2017 ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean 13
Child, Old Age And Total Dependency
Rates For The Caribbean (Number of persons per hundred people aged 15-64 years)
0
20
40
60
80
100
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
0-14 65 and over Total
6/2/2017 ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean 14
Old age dependency rates by region
(65+/15-64)
0
10
20
30
40
50
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Latin America
North America
The Caribbean
Europe
Africa
6/2/2017 ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean 15
Old age dependency ratio by country,
2015, 2030 and 2045 (65+/(15-64))
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Belize Guyana Suri- name
Antigua and
Barbuda
Saint Vincent and the
Grenadines
Grenada Baha- mas
The Caribbean
Saint Lucia
Trinidad and
Tobago
Jamaica Aruba Barbados Curaçao Guade- loupe
The United States
Virgin Islands
Marti- nique
2015 2030 2045
6/2/2017 ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean 16
Older persons in the Caribbean by sex
and age, 2000-2050 (Thousands)
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
A. (...) Females
60-69 70-79 80-89 90+
6/2/2017 ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean 17
Survival curves for the Caribbean
population (both sexes), selected years,
1890-2100 (Survival probability by age)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
S u
rv iv
a l
p ro
b a b
il it
y
Age
2100 (Life expectancy = 85) 2050 (Life expectancy = 78)
2015 (Life expectancy = 73) 2000 (Life expectancy = 70)
1950 (Life expectancy = 57) 1890 (Life expectancy = 38)
6/2/2017 ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean 18
Deaths due to non-communicable
diseases (NCD) and population aged 60
and over, around 2010
ATG
ABW
BHS
BRB
BLZ
GRD
GLP
GUY
JAM MTQ
PRI
LCA
VCT
SUR
TTO
VIR
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22
D e a th
s d
u e t
o N
C D
s
Population aged 60 and over
6/2/2017 ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean 19
Fiscal implications of ageing
• Population ageing will lead to increased
demand for public expenditure on pensions and
health care
• Spending on public health care services in Latin
America is expected to rise by 3.4 percentage
shares of GDP between 2005 and 2050 and in
the EU-15 countries by 3.2. The corresponding
increases in public expenditure on pensions
were 1.5 (Latin America) and 2.3 (EU-15)
percentage shares of GDP.
• It is reasonable to assume that similar increases
will be required in Caribbean countries.
6/2/2017 ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean 20
Public health spending and GDP per capita,
2012 (spending as a percentage of GDP and
GDP per capita in international dollars, PPP)
ATG
BHS
BRB
BLZ DMA
GRD
GUY
JAM KNA
LCA
VCT
SUR TTO
OECD
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0 5 000 10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 30 000 35 000 40 000
P u
b li c s
p e n
d in
g o
n h
e a lt
h
GDP per capita
6/2/2017 ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean 21
Out-of-pocket expenditure on health and GDP
per capita, 2012 (out-of-pocket expenditure as
a percentage of total health expenditure)
ATG
BHS
BRB
BLZ
DMA
GRD
GUY JAM
KNA
LCA
VCT SUR
TTO
OECD
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0 5 000 10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 30 000 35 000 40 000
O u
t- o
f- p
o c k e t
e x p
e n
d it
u re
GDP per capita
6/2/2017 ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean 22
Persons over retirement age who receive a
contributory social security pension (%)
80 74
69
51 50 48 47 46 40
34 31
22
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Guyana (2011)
Barbados (2008)
Bahamas (2012)
Antigua and
Barbuda (2002)
Grenada (2011)
Saint Kitts and
Nevis (2010)
Trinidad and
Tobago (2010)
Dominica (2011)
Jamaica (2003)
Saint Vincent and the
Grenadines (2006)
Belize (2011)
Saint Lucia (2007/08)
6/2/2017 ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean 23
Expenditure on contributory and non-
contributory pensions (% of GDP)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Bahamas (2012)
Barbados (2008)
Belize (2011)
Dominica (2011)
Grenada (2011)
Guyana (2011)
Saint Kitts and Nevis
(2010)
Saint Lucia
(2007/08)
Trinidad and
Tobago (2010)
Contributory Non-contributory
6/2/2017 ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean 24
Non-contributory pensions and national
poverty and indigence lines, 2013
(current international dollars (ppp) per month)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Trinidad and
Tobago
Suri- name
Barbados Baha- mas
Guyana Antigua and
Barbuda
Saint Kitts and
Nevis
Belize Saint Vincent and the
Grenadines
Jamaica Domi- nica
Grenada Saint Lucia
National poverty and indigence lines (per adult equivalent male at 2013 prices; poverty lines > indigence lines)
Thank you!
Language:English
Score: 1062324
-
https://www.cepal.org/sites/de...francis_jones_presentation.pdf
Data Source: un
Sarada Pengeni is treasurer of
Consumer’s Group. (15”)
SARADA PENGENI: (Nepalese) F
“Before we went to collect five to seven pitchers of
water, and we would spend a lot of time. Since
this project got implemented with the community
initiative, women are the group that has benefited
the most.” (12.5”)
NARRATION
In rural Nepal, it is women’s responsibility to
manage the family water. With women spending
less time fetching water, they are now free to do
other things. (...) It has reached 800,000 rural
Nepalese and it aims to reach hundreds of
thousand more. (27”)
This report was prepared by Alison Schafer for
United Nations. (4”)
Language:English
Score: 1055336.3
-
https://www.un.org/webcast/pdfs/unia1164.pdf
Data Source: un
Haiti: ‘Dire’ situation awaits thousands of migrants forced to return from Americas | | UN News
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Haiti: ‘Dire’ situation awaits thousands of migrants forced to return from Americas
30 September 2021
Interviews
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Conditions on the ground are dire for the thousands of Haitian migrants being forced to return to their homeland from the Americas, many of them “empty handed”, and bewildered.
That’s according to Giuseppe Loprete, chief of the International Organization for Migration's ( IOM ) Mission in Haiti, who told UN News that around 5,500 people have been forcibly returned since 19 September, with thousands more expected in the days ahead.
Those being expelled from the US border area and flown home, often after spending years away, are returning to a land facing multiple crises, Mr.
Language:English
Score: 1035496.5
-
https://news.un.org/en/audio/2021/09/1101812
Data Source: un
The school year has been long and stressful for the two little girls as for other thousands of children who had to stop school and spend nearly three months or more at home, following the health emergency which has been effective in Madagascar since March 23. (...) "I was very scared at first because the announcement was so sudden that it turned a lot of things upside down," said Antsa, who had to cope with the change. She spends her spare time taking care of her henhouse or reading for entertainment. (...) "I have to succeed at all costs", explained Alexana, enrolled in public primary school. Thousands of students will take the CEPE exam on Tuesday, particularly those from the Regions of Atsimo Atsinanana, Haute Matsiatra, Amoron’i Mania, Vatovavy Fitovinany and Atsimo Andrefana.
Language:English
Score: 1035305.5
-
https://www.unicef.org/madagas...id-19-between-hope-and-anxiety
Data Source: un
This Father’s Day, Sovannarem is sharing his own journey as a dad, and emphasizing the importance of the father’s role in ensuring children grow to their fullest potential.
“These days, I spend most of my time with my newborn daughter”, Sovannarem.
(...) This is true; the first thousand days of life are crucial to the development of a child’s brain. (...) Being a father, I need to spend time with my daughters helping to have proper emotional, intelligence and physical development.
Language:English
Score: 1028341.1
-
https://www.unicef.org/cambodia/stories/unconditional-love
Data Source: un
And I am happy to announce that from
February onwards, our mission or our contribution in Lebanon to the United Nations
peacekeeping mission will be increased by 15 additional troops. We continue to spend financial
resources on preventing or helping to prevent conflicts in the Midwest of Africa, and so far, we
have helped 50 thousand Christians to be able to stay in their homes in the Middle-East, where
unfortunately, their communities are being under persecution on some occasions. (...) And we are happy to announce that we host more than 10 thousand students on state government
scholarships from different parts of the world, where conflicts cause many troubles and
problems, and the proof of success of this program is that this year, we have 49 thousand
candidates for these 10 thousand spots here in Hungary.
Language:English
Score: 1024447.4
-
https://www.un.org/peacebuildi...ng/files/documents/hungary.pdf
Data Source: un
- 1/6 One sixth of his salaries and allowances for every year he spends with the
United Nations in addition to [one sixth] of the end of service remuneration in
case the same is granted a sabbatical leave (...) An end of service gratuity is (5.952.900 J.D.) five thousand nine
hundred fifty two dinars and nine hundred fills.
2. (...) Hamdan’s salary for one sabbatical year (4[.]118.600
J.D) four thousand one hundred eighteen dinars and
six hundred fills.
3.
Language:English
Score: 1017682.3
-
www.un.org/en/internalj...at/judgments/2016-UNAT-665.pdf
Data Source: oaj
We were crying too,” she recalls.
Hiba spends most of her time in the special facility created for mothers with babies in the UNICEF supported child-friendly space. (...) “The birth of my baby made life here more tolerable, because it preoccupies us. We spend most of our time devoted to my son — my first baby. But my heart is with my husband. We want to spend these beautiful times with our new baby together,” she says.
Language:English
Score: 1012159.2
-
https://www.unicef.org/northma...-stranded-route-towards-europe
Data Source: un